Population projections


The latest population projections cover the period from 2018 to 2043 and are supplied as unrounded single year of age counts for females, males and persons.  The results are available for the 14 Lancashire local authorities and the eight clinical commissioning groups that cover the county.

For the Lancashire-14 area, a 7.2% increase is projected over the 25-year period, resulting in an expected population total of 1.606 million by 2043.  For the Lancashire-12 area, the percentage increase is projected to be higher at 8.6%, with the number expected to reach 1.31 million. These increases have been revised up from the previous projections. The estimated increases for both areas are similar to the average for the North West, 8.5%, and well below the expected increase for England of 10.4%.

Chorley (17.8%), Fylde (16%), Ribble Valley (13.3%) and Rossendale (12.6%) are predicted increases above the England average. In the Lancashire-12 area, West Lancashire is predicted the lowest increase (3.8%). The two unitary authorities are predicted the lowest increases in the Lancashire-14 area (Blackburn with Darwen - 1%, Blackpool - 1.6%)/

Analysis by age shows that, the number of children aged 0 to 15 will peak in 2022 and then decline. The working age population is predicted to peak in 2032 and the older population are predicted to continue to increase, with more in the 85 and over bracket each year as life expectancy increases over the period. The old age dependency ratio (number of people on state pension per 1,000 people of working age), is predicted to increase in every district over the period of the projection, with Wyre seeing the largest increase from 489 in 2018 to 630 in 2043.

The dashboard below gives more detail on the projections.

For help on using these dashboards, please look at our tips and hints (PDF, 454KB).

You can make selections by clicking on the down arrow next to the selection boxes and checking the box; you can put the dashboard into full screen mode by clicking on the double headed arrow in the bottom right hand corner.

You might also be interested in our household projections dashboard,




Page updated May 2021