Mid-year population estimates

Summary

The 2017 mid-year population estimate for the Lancashire-14 area was 1,490,497 persons. For the Lancashire-12 area it was 1,201,855 people. 50.6% were female and 49.4% were male in both areas.

Blackburn with Darwen (148,772) had the largest mid-year population estimate of the 14 Lancashire authorities in 2017, followed by Lancaster (142,487), Preston (141,346) and Blackpool (139,870). Ribble Valley (59,504) and Rossendale (70,365) had the lowest estimates. West Lancashire has the highest proportion of females (51.5%), Preston the lowest proportion (49.3%). The populations for the both the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas are estimated to be increasing but Blackpool, Burnley and Hyndburn are estimated to have a lower populations than in 2001. Scroll down for a summary of yearly change.

In the Lancashire-12 area, 20.6% were aged 0-17 years, 59.0% were aged 18 to 64 years, and 20.4% were aged 65 and over. These compared with 21.1%, 60.7% and 18.2%, respectively, for the UK, revealing that the Lancashire-12 area had a greater percentage in the 65 and older age group. Within the Lancashire-14 area, the percentages of persons aged 65 and over were the greatest in Wyre (27.2%), Fylde (26.9%) and Ribble Valley (23.3%) and lowest in Preston (14.7%) and Blackburn with Darwen (14.3%).

The dashboard below visualises much of this data. Further tables and analysis is contained within the full report available at the bottom of the page.

For help on using this dashboards, please look at our tips and hints (PDF, 454KB).

You can make selections by checking the relevant box; you can put the dashboard into full screen mode by clicking on the double headed arrow in the bottom right hand corner.

The UK and North West context

The resident population for the United Kingdom was estimated to be 66.04 million in mid-2017 with a 95% confidence interval of plus or minus 0.2%.

Nearly 12 million UK residents were aged 65 years and over in mid-2017, or 18.2% of the population. This total was 2.2 million more than 10 years earlier. The large post-war 'baby boom' cohort, born in 1947 were now 70 years of age.

For those people born in the baby boom of the early 1960s, this cohort is now aged between 53 and 57 years of age.  

In the year to mid-2017, the UK population increased by 0.6% (392,175 persons). This is the lowest numeric and percentage change since the year to mid-2004. The yearly percentage increase in the UK population has varied between 0.6% and 0.84% since the year ending mid-2005. However, the population is still growing faster than at any time since the post war ‘baby boom’ and the expansion of the EU in 2004.

In the North West, the total estimated population of 7,258,627 was 0.5% (34,666 persons) higher than a year earlier.

Yearly change figures for the Lancashire-14 area

For the Lancashire-14 area, the estimate of 1,490,497 people was 0.4% (6,634 persons) higher than 12 months earlier. The Lancashire-12 estimated population (1,201,855) saw a marginally greater 0.5% yearly increase (6,437 persons), as the area excluded the low and negative yearly changes recorded in Blackburn with Darwen (0.2%) and Blackpool (-0.1%).

Chorley (1.3%, 1,506 persons), Ribble Valley (1.1%, 640 persons), Fylde (0.9%, 710 persons), Rossendale (0.8%, 578 persons) and West Lancashire (0.7%, 820 persons) were the five Lancashire-14 authorities with yearly percentage increases in excess of the UK average of 0.6%.

Blackpool (-113 persons, -0.1%) was the only Lancashire-14 authority to record a population decrease between mid-2016 and mid-2017, however, Hyndburn (18 persons, 0.0%) saw only a very marginal yearly increase. 

The six lowest yearly increases between mid-2016 and mid-2017 in the Lancashire-14 area were estimated in Hyndburn (18 persons, 0.0%), Pendle (181 persons, 0.2%), Burnley (209 people, 0.2%), South Ribble (264 people, 0.2%), Blackburn with Darwen (310 persons, 0.2%) and Preston (323 persons, 0.2%). Four of these six were within East Lancashire.  

Components of population change, mid-2016 to mid 2017

In the Lancashire-12 area, the net internal migration component (+4,584 persons) accounted for the largest rise in the overall estimated population increase (+6,437 persons), followed by net international migration (+1,704 people) and natural change (+206 persons). The 'other' component showed a fall of -57 persons.

For the Lancashire-14 area, the net internal migration component (+3,754 persons) again accounted for the largest rise in the overall estimated population increase (+6,634 persons), followed by net international migration (+2,248 people) and natural change (+715 persons). The 'other' component saw a decrease of -83 persons.

Net internal migration (movement between UK local authority areas)

The net internal migration component of population change (movement between UK local authorities) showed the largest estimated changes (both positive and negative) between mid-2016 and mid-2017 for 10 of the Lancashire-14 areas, ranging between +1,407 persons (for Chorley) to -833 persons (for Blackburn with Darwen). The four exceptions were Lancaster (+622 persons from international migration), Preston (+622 persons from natural change), Burnley (+267 persons from natural change) and Blackpool (-237 persons from natural change).  

Change in mid-year population estimates, 2016 (revised) to 2017, components of change and median age

Area

Components of change, 2016 (revised) to 2017

Change in estimated 

population, 

2016 (revised) to 2017

Median age

Natural change (births minus deaths)

Net internal migration

Net international migration

Net internal and net international migration (combined)

Other changes

Burnley

267

-87

20

-67

9

209

40.1

Chorley

85

1,407

9

1,416

5

1,506

43.2

Fylde

-487

1,128

58

1,186

11

710

49.8

Hyndburn

241

-286

67

-219

-4

18

39.9

Lancaster

-176

315

622

937

3

764

40.0

Pendle

286

-497

398

-99

-6

181

39.7

Preston

622

-374

140

-234

-65

323

35.2

Ribble Valley

-131

760

12

772

-1

640

47.5

Rossendale

103

398

73

471

4

578

42.5

South Ribble

99

155

14

169

-4

264

44.1

West Lancashire

-212

898

127

1,025

7

820

44.3

Wyre

-491

767

164

931

-16

424

49.2

Lancashire-12

206

4,584

1,704

6,288

-57

6,437

42.7

Blackburn with Darwen

746

-833

409

-424

-12

310

36.1

Blackpool

-237

3

135

138

-14

-113

43.6

Lancashire-14

715

3,754

2,248

6,002

-83

6,634

-

North West

13,068

10,684

11,564

22,248

-650

34,666

40.4

England

156,763

-18,424

210,570

192,146

2,454

351,363

39.8

Great Britain

152,079

-583

229,060

228,477

2,922

383,478

40.1

United Kingdom

159,776

9

229,643

229,652

2,747

392,175

40.1

Notes: Some figures may not sum owing to rounding. Internal migration flows reflect movements between local authority areas. Arriving international migrants are included in the usual resident population if they remain in the UK for at least a year. Emigrants are removed from the total if they leave the UK for more than one year. The 'other' category reflect changes to the size of armed forces stationed in the UK and other special population adjustments. The administrative data used in estimating international immigration to local authority areas in England and Wales were not available at the time of production of the mid-2017 population estimates, requiring the use of averaged local authority distributions from the previous three years.

Source: Office for National Statistics: mid-year population estimates

Nine of the Lancashire-14 areas saw positive net internal migration estimates between mid-2016 and mid-2017. The largest of these was estimated to have been in Chorley (+1,407 persons), followed by Fylde (+1,128 persons), West Lancashire (+898), Wyre (+767 persons), Ribble Valley (+760 people), Rossendale (+398), Lancaster (+315), South Ribble (+155 persons) and Blackpool (+3 people). The six Lancashire-14 areas that saw negative natural change estimates (more deaths than births) were encompassed in these nine areas. With the exception of Blackpool, none of the negative natural changes were large enough to offset the increases seen in the net internal migration and net international migration components and overall, population grew in these areas.  

For Blackpool, the very low net internal migration figure (+3 persons) and the net international migration estimate (+135 persons) were not large enough to offset the reductions estimated for natural change (-237 people (more deaths than births)) and the fall in the 'other' component category (-14 persons).  Overall, the population in Blackpool was estimated to have fallen by -113 persons over the year.

Only three of the Lancashire-14 areas saw estimated increases in all three of the main components of change (natural change, internal migration and international migration) between mid-2016 and md-2017. These were Chorley, South Ribble and Rossendale. 

The increase in the estimated mid-year population in Chorley (+1,506 people) was comprised predominantly from net internal migration (+1,407 persons). The contributions from natural change (+85 persons) and net international migration (+9 people) in Chorley were the smallest sub-totals for these two components (where positive change was estimated) in the Lancashire-14 area. The 'other' component contributed 5 persons to the overall increase in Chorley.

The five Lancashire-14 areas of Blackburn with Darwen (-833 people), Pendle (-497 persons), Preston (-374 persons), Hyndburn (-286 people) and Burnley (-87 persons) saw negative yearly net internal migration estimates between mid-2016 and mid-2017 (ie more people left these areas to go to other local authority areas in the UK than moved to these areas from other parts of the UK). Four of these five areas fall within East Lancashire. In contrast, both the natural change and net international migration components increased for all five of these areas. Together, the increases in these two components were large enough to offset the decreases in net internal migration and resulted in overall population growth, although low in percentage terms, in the five areas. 

Lancaster, Preston, Blackpool and West Lancashire saw the largest movements of internal migration (inflows and outflows between UK local authority areas) in the Lancashire-14 area between mid-2016 and mid-2017. The level of the population flows probably reflects the relatively larger size of the populations in these particular authorities. However, for Lancaster, Preston and West Lancashire, which all have higher education establishments located in their areas, the movement of students from within the UK will probably add to the population flows. These flows are not always obvious in the net internal migration estimates.

Natural change (births and deaths)

Six Lancashire-14 areas saw negative yearly natural change estimates (more deaths than births) between mid-2016 and mid-2017. The six areas were Wyre (-491 persons), Fylde (-487 persons), Blackpool (-237 persons), West Lancashire (-212 persons), Lancaster (-176 persons) and Ribble Valley (-131 persons). These figures reflect the larger proportions of persons in the older age groups (and higher median ages) in the majority of these areas. Of these six areas, Lancaster (40.0 median age) was the only one with a median age below the UK average (40.1 years).

The eight Lancashire-14 areas of Blackburn with Darwen (+746 people), Preston (+622 people), Pendle (+286), Burnley (+267), Hyndburn (+241), Rossendale (+103), South Ribble (+99 people) and Chorley (+85 people) saw positive natural change (more births than deaths) between mid-2016 and mid-2017. Of these, five of the six areas with the highest estimated positive changes were within East Lancashire. The top six figures generally reflect areas with larger proportions of females in the child bearing age group (and lower median ages) in the majority of these areas. Of these six areas, only Rossendale (42.5 median age) had a median age above the UK average (40.1 years).

Net international migration (flows in and out of the UK of more than 1 year)

All of the Lancashire-14 areas saw positive yearly net international migration estimates between mid-2016 and mid-2017 ranging from 9 persons (in Chorley) to 622 persons (in Lancaster).

Lancaster and Preston saw by far the greatest movements from international migration (inflows and outflows), followed by Blackburn with Darwen and Pendle. For Lancaster and Preston these large flows probably reflect the location of universities in both of these cities and the movement of international students. Between mid-2016 and mid-2017, for Preston, inflows (1,448) and outflows (1,308) were fairly evenly matched, resulting in a yearly net international migration change of +140 persons.  For Lancaster, inflows (1,844) were much greater than outflows (1,222), resulting in a much larger yearly net international migration change of +622 persons.

Revisions to the mid-year population estimates for 2012 to 2016

Please note that mid-year population estimates for the years 2012 to 2016 were revised by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on the 22 March 2018.

The statistical bulletin: Revised population estimates for England and Wales: mid-2012 to mid-2016, published by the ONS on the 22 March 2018 provides further detail about the revisions and access to the revised datasets

The ONS has also released a mid-year population estimates revision tool. This allows comparison of the original and revised estimates of the usually resident population for mid-2012 to mid-2016 (as at 30 June) at the sub-national level. Data are available by administrative area, single year of age, sex and component of population change.

One of the main changes to the methodology relates to the way student population estimates are modelled, particularly around international student emigration. Figures above the regional level have been held constant and are unchanged. 

Further analysis and interactive tools

For further information on the historical change at the UK level and the components of change, please see the ONS statistical bulletin: Population estimates for UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2017, released on the 28 June 2018. The statistical bulletin contains a number of interactive maps which allow users to explore the yearly population change figures (by component) at the local authority level, plus population pyramids, age structure and median age data, and internal migration flows between local authorities.

The ONS has also produced an Analysis of population estimates (APE) tool, which allows population change, including the components of change, and population pyramids to be explored back to 2011.

Mid-year population estimates for 2017 and change analysis - full report download (PDF 1,289 KB)

Page updated 3 July 2018 and 31 July 2018