Population projections

Summary

The latest population projections cover the period from 2016 to 2041 and are supplied as unrounded single year of age counts for females, males and persons.  The results are available for the 14 Lancashire local authorities and the eight clinical commissioning groups that cover the county.

For the Lancashire-14 area, a 2.4% increase is projected over the 25-year period, resulting in an expected population total of 1.514 million by 2041.  For the Lancashire-12 area, the percentage increase is projected to be higher at 3.5%, with the number expected to reach 1.23 million. These increases have been revised down from the previous projections. The estimated increases for both areas are lower than the average for the North West, 6.4% as a whole, and well below the expected increase for England of 12.1%.

In contrast to the national trend, Blackburn with Darwen, Blackpool, Burnley, Hyndburn, Pendle and Preston, are predicted to see small population decreases between 2016 and 2041. Chorley is the only Lancashire authority with a projected increase higher than the North West or England average.

Analysis by age shows that, for the next eight years, the number of children aged 0 to 15 will rise and thereafter the number will decline. The working age population is predicted to start to decline within 5 years and the older population are predicted to continue to increase, with more in the 85 and over bracket each year as life expectancy increases over the period. The old age dependency ratio (number of people on state pension per 1,000 people of working age, is predicted to increase in every district over the period of the projection, with Fylde seeing the largest increase (496 in 2016 to 685 in 2041).

The dashboard below gives more detail on the projections.

For help on using these dashboards, please look at our tips and hints (PDF, 454KB).

You can make selections by clicking on the down arrow next to the selection boxes and checking the box; you can put the dashboard into full screen mode by clicking on the double headed arrow in the bottom right hand corner.

You might also be interested in our household projections dashboard,

 

 

 

Page updated May 2018