Population projections

Summary

The latest population projections cover the period from 2014 to 2039 and are supplied as unrounded single year of age counts for females, males and persons. The results are available for the 14 Lancashire local authorities and the six clinical commissioning groups that cover the county.

For the Lancashire-14 area, a 4.5% increase is projected over the 25-year period, resulting in an expected population total of 1.538 million by 2039. For the Lancashire-12 area, the percentage increase is projected to be higher at 5.9%, with the number expected to reach 1.254 million. The estimated increases for both areas are lower than the average for the North West (8.2%) as a whole, and well below the expected increase for England of 16.5%.

In contrast to the national trend, Hyndburn, Burnley, Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool are predicted to see small population decreases between 2014 and 2039. Chorley is the only Lancashire authority with a projected increase higher than the North West or England average.

Analysis by age shows that, for the next ten years, the number of children aged 0 to 15 will rise and thereafter the number will decline. The working age population is predicted to start to decline within 5 years and the older population are predicted to continue to increase, with more falling into the over 85 bracket each year as life expectancy increases over the period.

In comparison to the population estimates produced in 2012, the 2014 population estimates have slightly upwardly revised the figure for the Lancashire-12 area (+0.59%) but downwardly revised the figures for the two unitary areas, leading to a corresponding small downward revision in the projection population of the Lancashire-14 area (-0.28%) between 2014 and 2039.

The full article can be downloaded below.

Further analysis and data

Population projections report (PDF 1.1 MB)

CCG data (CSV 1 MB  click yes then OK for the two warning messages.)

District data (CSV 1.1 MB click yes then OK for the two warning messages.)

Page updated June 2016

 

Dashboards (interactive maps, charts and tables)

CCGs 

Lancashire-14 districts 

for All persons, 5 year age groups and labour market categories, broken down by gender. Time series graphs are also available to view on this dashboard.