Mid-year population estimates


In 2016, the mid-year population estimate for the Lancashire-14 area was 1,485,042 persons, which was 0.5% (6,927 persons) higher than in 2015 (UK =0.8%). The Lancashire-12 estimated population (1,198,798) saw a marginally greater 0.6% yearly increase (7,107 persons), as the area excluded the low and negative yearly changes recorded in Blackburn with Darwen (0.1%) and Blackpool (-0.3%).

Blackburn with Darwen (147,049) had the largest population of the 14 Lancashire authorities in 2016, followed by Lancaster (143,517), Preston (141,801) and Blackpool (139,195). Ribble Valley (58,826) and Rossendale (69,886) had the lowest totals.

Figure 1: 2016 Mid-year population estimates (thousands) for local authorities with the Lancashire County Council 12-authority area and for Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool unitary authorities

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) annual mid-year population estimates.

Chorley (1.2%, 1,382 persons), Lancaster (0.9%, 1,234 persons) and Fylde (0.9%, 668 persons) were the three Lancashire-14 authorities to record yearly percentage increases in excess of the UK average (0.8%).

Blackpool (0.3%, 383 persons) was the only Lancashire-14 authority to record an estimated yearly decrease, whilst Burnley (0.2%, 151 persons) and Blackburn with Darwen (0.1%, 203 persons) saw only small yearly increases.

Components of population change, 2015 to 2016

Wyre (508 persons), Fylde (383 persons), West Lancashire (231 persons), Blackpool (185 persons) and Ribble Valley (114 persons) recorded negative yearly natural change estimates (more deaths than births). These figures probably reflect the larger proportions of persons in the older age groups in these areas.

Blackburn with Darwen had the strongest positive net natural change (more births than deaths) of 928 between 2015 and 2016, but also the largest net internal migration outflow of 1,036 persons.

Fylde (978), Chorley (968) and Wyre (839) recorded the largest yearly net internal migration increases in the Lancashire-14 area

Lancaster (1,327 persons), Preston (689 persons) and West Lancashire (329 persons), which each have higher education establishments located in their areas, saw the largest yearly increases in net international migration in the Lancashire-14 area.

Population estimates by gender and age-group

The 45-49 and 50-54 age-groups were the largest in the Lancashire-14 and Lancashire-12 areas, with each of these age groups accounting for over 7% of both the male and female totals. 

There were estimated to be 36,657 people in the Lancashire-14 area who were aged 85 and over. Of this total, 65.4% were women. In the Lancashire-12 area, the total was estimated to be 30,515 persons for this age group. Again, just under two-thirds (65.3%) were women.

Changes to mid-year population estimates, 2011 to 2016

From 2011 to 2016, it is estimated that Blackpool (2.0%, 2,900 persons) and Blackburn (0.5%, 700 persons) have seen reductions to their population totals, whilst Hyndburn has seen no change for these two particular dates. Only Chorley (6.3%, 6,800 persons) and Lancaster (4.1%, 5,700 persons) have seen percentage increases within the Lancashire-14 area that were greater than the UK percentage rise of 3.7% since 2011. The increase in the Lancashire-14 area was 1.6% (23,700 persons) over the period and 2.3% (27,200 persons) in the Lancashire-12 area. 

Further analysis and data

2016 Mid-year population estimates report (PDF 951 KB)

Small area mid-year population estimates for 2016

Mid-2016 LSOA population estimates by 5-year age bands and gender (CSV 176 KB)

Mid-2016 LSOA population estimates by single year of age and gender (EXCEL 1,187 KB)

Mid-2016 experimental ward population estimates by single year of age and gender (EXCEL 412 KB)

Page updated October 2017