Universal Credit

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) publish experimental monthly Universal Credit statistics by local authority boundary. The experimental designation is in place as the Universal Credit system still being rolled out. Caution should therefore be applied when analysing and interpreting the data. The bulk of the transition to Universal Credit is estimated to be completed by 2024/25 with the migration of Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) cases estimated to continue until 2028/29. See GOV.UK web page.

The revised (final) data in this analysis can be sourced from the DWP's Stat-Xplore online data selection tool.  

Click here for our Universal Credit Microsoft Power BI report (data and time series graphs)

Note on working age denominators used in the analysis below. The 16 to 64 working age population denominators used to calculate the proportions for the number of people on Universal Credit for geographic areas are still based on the 2020 mid-year estimates from January 2020 onwards in the analysis below. The 2021 and 2022 mid-year estimates will be updated when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases the rebased mid-year estimates for the years from 2012 to 2020 (to align with the 2021 Census estimates). The 2012 to 2020 rebased mid-year estimates were scheduled to be published in September 2023, but these have been delayed with the publication date now expected on 23 November 2023.

Please see the bottom of the web page for notes on 16-64 denominators, January 2016 to December 2018 revisions, Universal Credit full service rollout notes and excel data file. 

Summary for July 2023 (revised data)

July 2023 Universal Credit numbers and proportions

In July 2023, the proportion of persons aged 16-64 on Universal Credit (UC) was 15.3% in the Lancashire-12 area, 17.1% in the Lancashire-14 area and 17.0% in the North West region. These were all higher than the Great Britain proportion of 14.8%.

Blackpool (27.0%) had the highest UC total proportion in GB (out of 363 local authorities). Burnley (25.2%) had the second highest. Blackburn with Darwen (21.9%) and Hyndburn (21.7%) were ranked in the top 15 and 16 positions (in the highest 5%). Pendle (20.2%) was in the top tenth of the rankings, Preston (18.0%) fell just outside of the highest sixth and Rossendale (15.0%) was in the top 38% of the rankings. These seven were above the GB proportion (14.8%). In contrast, Ribble Valley (7.4%) had the joint sixth lowest UC proportion in Great Britain, and the lowest proportion in the L-14 area and the North West region.

Please note that the number of local authorities in Great Britain has fallen from 371 to 363, owing to local government boundary changes in Buckinghamshire in April 2020, and in Northamptonshire in April 2021.

Blackpool (22,671 people) and Blackburn with Darwen (20,507 people) had the largest and second largest UC totals in the Lancashire-14 area in July 2023.

Preston had the largest total number of persons on Universal Credit (16,772) within the Lancashire-12 area in July 2023, followed by Burnley (13,551), Lancaster (13,061), Pendle (11,157) and Hyndburn (10,674). Ribble Valley (2,719) had the lowest number of persons on Universal Credit in the area.

Renewed trend of increasing Universal Credit numbers from early 2022

The decrease in the total number of people on Universal Credit in Great Britain, the North West, and the Lancashire-12 area and Lancashire-14 areas halted in either January or March of 2022. Numbers have generally been on the increase since these months. The same overall upward trend is evident for each of the individual local authority areas within the Lancashire-14 area, although the low point for Blackpool was recorded slightly later, in May 2022.

The change in Lancaster is of some note, having seen very little change in numbers between January 2022 and June 2022. Numbers then ticked upwards from July 2022 to February 2023, before reducing slightly in March and April of 2023. Between April 2023 and July 2023 total UC numbers in Lancaster have one again been fairly flat, changing little over these months.

Blackburn with Darwen, Blackpool and Fylde also saw relatively little change to their numbers between December 2021 and May 2022. Rossendale and West Lancashire saw gradual increases from February 2022 to June 2022, before increasing more noticeably from July 2022.

Areas with Universal Credit totals above and below their initial Covid-19 pandemic peaks (peaks December 2020 to October 2021)

As at July 2023, the nine Lancashire-14 areas of Pendle, Hyndburn, Blackburn with Darwen, Preston, Rossendale, Burnley, West Lancashire, Chorley and South Ribble have Universal Credit totals that are above their initial Covid-19 pandemic peaks recorded between December 2020 and October 2021. The UC totals range from being 14.9% (1,443 people) above in Pendle to 0.5% (35 people) above in South Ribble. At July 2023, all of these areas except South Ribble have UC total proportions that are above their initial Covid-19 pandemic peaks, ranging from 2.6 percentage points higher in Pendle to 0.1 percentage point greater in Chorley. The South Ribble proportion was the same in July 2023 as it was at its March 2021 peak (11.1%).  

The five Lancashire-14 areas of Blackpool, Wyre, Ribble Valley, Fylde and Lancaster as at July 2023 have Universal Credit totals that are below their initial Covid-19 pandemic peaks recorded between December 2020 and October 2021. The UC totals at July 2023 range from being 0.5% (110 people) below in Blackpool, 1.1% (100 people) below in Wyre, 5.1% (145 people) below in Ribble Valley, 5.1% (296 people) in Fylde, to 12.2% (1,808 people) below in Lancaster. The UC total for Lancaster remains below its initial Covid-19 pandemic peak by the greatest percentage. The Lancaster UC total proportion in July 2023 of 13.9% is 0.9 percentage points below its initial Covid-19 peak of 14.8% recorded in February 2021.  The total UC proportions are 0.6 percentage points (pps) below Fylde, 0.4 pps in Ribble Valley, 0.2 pps in Blackpool and 0.1 pps in Wyre.

The Lancashire-12 area, the Lancashire-14 area, the North West region and Great Britain also have Universal Credit totals that are above their initial Covid-19 pandemic peaks recorded in March 2021, by 4.1% (4,453 people), 3.9% (5,851 people), 2.4% (18,312 people), and 0.8% (45,403 people), respectively.

Changes from Covid-19 peaks (December 2020 to October 2021) and low points (January, March or May of 2022)

Pendle (-1.2%, down 115 people), Hyndburn (-2.7%, down 265 people), Preston (-2.5%, down 392 people) and Blackburn with Darwen (-2.0%, down 386 people) saw particularly low percentage decreases to their UC totals from their initial Covid-19 peaks to their subsequent lows recorded in 2022. In comparison, the GB UC total fell by 7.3% from its 2021 peak, to its 2022 trough. The North West UC total reduced by 5.8%, the L-12 area total fell by 5.7%, and the L-14 area total was down by 5.3%.

Pendle (up 16.2%, 1,558 people), Hyndburn (up 12.3%, 1,166 people), Preston (up 10.2%, 1,550 people) and Blackburn with Darwen (up 9.8%, 1,823 people) have seen relatively high increases to their UC totals from their respective low points in 2022, to July 2023. The GB Universal Credit total rose by 8.7% from its 2022 low point to July 2023. The North West UC total increased by 8.8%, the L-14 area total rose by 9.6%, and the L-12 area total was up by 10.3%.  

Burnley (-4.7%, down 605 people), Rossendale (-6.6%, down 495 people) and West Lancashire (-7.5%, down 691 people) also saw relatively low percentage decreases to their UC totals from their initial Covid-19 peaks to their subsequent lows recorded in 2022. These were followed by higher increases to their UC totals from their respective 2022 low points to July 2023. In Burnley, the total was up by 11.0% (1,338 people), the Rossendale total was up by 13.9% (805 people) and West Lancashire total was up by 11.6% (up 988 people). The UC totals for these three areas are now above their initial Covid-19 peaks.

In Blackpool, the reduction in Universal Credit total numbers was more pronounced from its Covid-19 pandemic peak in March 2021, to its low point in May 2022 (-7.0%, down 1,590 people). The percentage increase in total Universal Credit numbers in Blackpool was similar from its May 2022 low point to July 2023 (up 7.0%, or 1,480 people).  However, as at July 2023 the total number of people on UC in Blackpool is 0.5%, or 110 people below its initial Covid-19 pandemic peak in March 2021.

Similar to Blackpool, the decreases in Universal Credit total numbers were more pronounced from their initial Covid-19 pandemic peaks, to their low points in 2022 in the local authorities of Ribble Valley (-18.9%, down 542 people), Lancaster (-14.8%, down 2,194 people, Fylde (-14.7%, down 847 people), Wyre (-9.1, down 821 people), South Ribble (-8.8%, down 716 people) and Chorley (-8.6%, down 691 people). The subsequent increases from their respective 2022 UC low points to July 2023 have seen the UC totals for South Ribble and Chorley rise above their initial Covid-19 peaks.

Lancashire-12 summary

In July 2023, the total number of people on Universal Credit (UC) in the Lancashire-12 area (L-12) was 114,255 persons or 15.3% of persons aged 16-64 (GB = 14.8%, 6,008,080 people). L-12 numbers rose by 825 persons (0.7%) between June 2023 and July 2023. The L-12 UC total proportion rose by 0.1 percentage point over the month to 15.3% (the GB proportion also rose by 0.1 percentage point, but to 14.8%).

Since the L-12 initial Covid-19 peak of 109,802 people on UC recorded in March 2021, the total is up by 4,453 people (4.1%) and the proportion is higher by 0.6 percentage points, up from 14.7%. After falling from the March 2021 Covid-19 peak, UC numbers in the L-12 area have been on the increase each month since March 2022. The L-12 UC total has risen by 10,699 people (10.3%) from 103,556 people in March 2022 to 114,255 in July 2023. The L-12 proportion has risen by 1.4 percentage points over this period, from 13.9% to 15.3%.

The L-12 UC total (114,255 persons) in July 2023 is 53,661 people (88.6%) higher than the March 2020 total of 60,594 persons. The L-12 proportion (15.3%) is 7.2 percentage points higher than the 8.1% recorded in March 2020. 

Lancashire-14 summary 

For the Lancashire-14 area (L-14), the Universal Credit total was 157,433 persons (17.1% of persons aged 16-64) in July 2023. The L-14 total numbers increased by 1,127 people (0.7%) over the month. The L-14 UC total proportion rose by 0.2 percentage points over the month (the GB proportion rose by 0.1 percentage point, to 14.8%).

Since the L-14 initial Covid-19 peak in March 2021 of 151,582 people on UC, the total is now greater by 5,851 people (3.9%) and the proportion is 0.7 percentage points higher, up from 16.4%. Following the fall in UC numbers from the March 2021 Covid-19 peak, UC total numbers have been rising for all but one month since March 2022. The UC total has risen by 13,838 people (9.6%) from 143,595 people in March 2022 to 155,297 in July 2023. The L-14 proportion has risen by 1.5 percentage points over this period, from 15.6% to 17.1%.

The L-14 UC total in July 2023 is 73,084 people (86.6%) greater than the 84,349 persons recorded in March 2020. The L14 proportion (17.1%) is 8.0 percentage points higher than in March 2020 (9.1%).

Great Britain summary

In Great Britain, there was a total of 6,008,080 people on Universal Credit (14.8%) in July 2023. GB numbers rose by 46,129 persons (0.8%) over the month. The GB proportion rose by 0.1 percentage point to 14.8%.

Since the GB initial Covid-19 peak of 5,962,677 people on UC recorded in March 2021, the total is now greater by 45,403 people (0.8%) and the proportion (14.8%) is higher by 0.1 percentage point, up from 14.7%. After the drop in UC numbers from the initial March 2021 Covid-19 peak, total UC numbers have been rising for all but one month since March 2022. The UC total in GB has risen by 479,894 people (8.7%) from 5,528,186 people in March 2022 to 6,008,080 in July 2023. The GB proportion has risen by 1.2 percentage points over this period from 13.6% to 14.8%.

The GB total in July 2023 is 2,996,561 people (99.5%) greater than the total of 3,011,519 people recorded in March 2020. The GB proportion (14.8%) is 7.4 percentage points higher than the March 2020 figure of 7.4%.

Table 1: Total number of persons on Universal Credit and rates (% of persons aged 16 to 64), July 2023 (revised), plus monthly and yearly changes - and changes from March 2020.  

Table 2: 'Not in employment' Universal Credit figures.  Table 3: 'In employment' Universal Credit figures.

Graph 1: People on Universal Credit, numbers for Lancashire-14 authorities - time series

Graph 2: People on Universal Credit, numbers for Great Britain, England and the North West region - time series

Graph 3: People on Universal Credit, rates (16-64 population) - time series

Note: Rates are for persons aged 16 to 64, calculated by Business Intelligence, Lancashire County Council, using 2015 to 2020 mid-year population estimates. Mid-year population estimates for 2020 have been used from January 2020 onwards. Numbers for the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas have been calculated by summing the relevant local authority figures. 

Source: DWP via Stat-Xplore, People on Universal Credit and Office for National Statistics - 2015 to 2020 Mid-year population estimates.

How to use the interactive table and graph functionality within the above dashboard.

Click on the column headings within the table to rank the data in that column. Click on the ID column heading to reset the table. Scroll across for more columns. Scroll up and down if required. Click on the diagonal double-ended arrow at the bottom right of the Power BI dashboard to enter full screen mode. Click the arrows next to the '1 to 6' label at the bottom of the dashboard to move through tables 1, 2 and 3, and graphs 1, 2 and 3. For the three time series graphs, select the geography required, then the variable(s) required (In employment/Not in employment/Total).

Summary continued

Monthly change in Universal Credit numbers and proportions

Since March 2022, the number of people on Universal Credit in the Lancashire-12 area has increased in each of the 16 subsequent months - April 2022 to July 2023. In the Lancashire-14 area and Great Britain, the UC totals have risen in all but one of these months (numbers fell slightly in May 2022 in both of these areas). This rising trend reverses the reducing trend from March 2021 to March 2022.

Between June 2023 and July 2023, increases to the Universal Credit (UC) totals were recorded in the Lancashire-12 area, the Lancashire-14 area and Great Britain.

Composition of monthly change by Universal Credit sub-category 

The June to July 2023 rise to the total UC numbers in the Lancashire-12 area (up 825), occurred because both the 'Not in employment' and the 'In employment' UC categories increased. The rise to the 'Not in employment' UC category (up 591 people) was greater than the increase to the 'In employment' UC category (up 229 people) in the L-12 area. Please note that the total may not sum owing to individual rounding at the UC sub-category level.

The increase within the Lancashire-14 area was also the result of both the 'Not In employment' and the 'In employment' UC categories increasing over the month. The UC 'Not In employment' category (up 769 people) was greater than the increase in the 'In employment' UC category (up 345 people) over the month. Please note that the total may not sum owing to individual rounding at the UC sub-category level.

In Great Britain, the monthly increase in the UC total (up by 46,129) again happened because both the UC sub-categories increased. The 'Not in employment' UC category rise (up 25,743) was greater than the increase to the 'In employment' UC category (up 20,382 people). Please note that the total may not sum owing to individual rounding at the UC sub-category level.

Thirteen of the individual local authority areas within the Lancashire-14 area recorded increases to the total number of people on Universal Credit over the month. Lancaster saw a small decrease (down 7 people, (-0.1%)).

Of the thirteen monthly increases to the totals, the GB, L-12 and L-14 pattern of changes (ie the increase to the 'Not in employment' UC category being greater than the increases to the 'In employment' UC category) was evident in seven of the L-14 areas. These were Blackburn with Darwen, Burnley, Pendle, Chorley, Hyndburn, Ribble Valley and Rossendale.

In Blackpool, Wyre and West Lancashire the increases to the 'Not in employment' UC category were lower than the increases to the 'In employment' UC category, resulting in an overall increase.

In Preston, South Ribble and Fylde, the increases to the 'Not in employment' UC category were greater than the decreases to the 'In employment' UC category, resulting in overall increases.

Lancaster was the only L-14 area to see a fall in the total number of people on Universal Credit over the month to July 2023. This was the result of the decrease to the 'Not in employment' UC category being greater than the increase to the 'In employment' UC category.

It is not clear why the UC sub-categories have changed as they have this month. However, the managed migration of claimants on legacy benefits to Universal Credit was scheduled to resume on Monday 9 May 2022.

Monthly percentage change in total Universal Credit numbers

Between June 2023 and July 2023, the total number of people on Universal Credit increased by 0.7% in both the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas. The GB and North West totals rose by 0.8% each.

Thirteen of the Lancashire-14 local authority areas saw increases to the total number of people on Universal Credit between June 2023 and July 2023, ranging from a rise of 1.7% in Ribble Valley, to a rise of 0.1% in Fylde (L-12 = 0.7% rise, L-14 = 0.7% rise & GB = 0.8%). The fall in the Lancaster UC total of 7 people represented a drop of 0.1%.

Monthly change in total Universal Credit numbers

Blackburn with Darwen (up 198 people, 1.0%) saw the largest increase in total numbers over the month, followed by Burnley (up 152 people, 1.1%), Preston (up 132 people, 0.9%), Blackpool (up 104 people, 0.5%), Pendle (up 103 people, 0.9%), Chorley (up 99 people, 1.2%), West Lancashire (up 90 people, 1.2%) and Hyndburn (up 87 people, 0.8%). Of the thirteen local increases, Fylde (up 5 people, 0.1%) recorded the smallest rise in the area.

Monthly change in total Universal Credit proportions

Twelve of the Lancashire-14 areas saw monthly increases to their UC total proportions. The proportions for Ribble Valley, Blackburn with Darwen, Burnley, Pendle, Hyndburn and Preston each increased by 0.2 percentage points. Those for Blackpool, Wyre, Chorley, West Lancashire, South Ribble and Rossendale each rose by 0.1 percentage point. The proportions for Fylde and Lancaster were unchanged over the previous month.

Further analysis: Change in Universal Credit numbers since the Covid-19 pandemic  

Change in Universal Credit totals from the UC Covid-19 pandemic low points (recorded in early 2022) to July 2023

In Pendle, the total number of people on Universal Credit reached its recent Covid-19 pandemic low point in January 2022, at 9,599 people (proportion 17.4%). Since this time the total has risen by 16.2% (up 1,558 people) and the proportion has increased by 2.8 percentage points as at July 2023. Pendle was the first Lancashire-14 local authority area to see its UC total rise above its initial pandemic peak of 9,714 people (proportion 17.6) recorded in September 2021. The first month when Pendle's total was above its initial pandemic peak was April 2022 (9,740 people). The proportion for Pendle was first above its initial September 2021 peak, slightly later, in May 2022 (17.7%).

For Preston, the total number of people on Universal Credit also reached its recent Covid-19 pandemic low point in January 2022, at 15,222 people (proportion 16.3%). Since January 2022 the total has risen by 10.2% (up 1,550 people) and the proportion has increased by 1.7 percentage points as at July 2023. Preston was the second Lancashire-14 local authority area to see its UC total rise above its initial pandemic peak of 15,614 people (proportion 16.7) recorded in October 2021. The first month when Preston's total was above its initial pandemic peak was June 2022 (15,615 people). The proportion for Preston was above its previous October 2021 peak (16.7%) a month later in July 2022 (17.0%).

In Hyndburn, the total number of people on Universal Credit again reached its recent Covid-19 pandemic low point in January 2022, at 9,508 people (proportion 19.3%). Since January 2022 the total has risen by 12.3% (up 1,166 people) and the proportion has increased by 2.4 percentage points as at July 2023. Hyndburn was the joint third Lancashire-14 local authority area (together with Blackburn with Darwen) to see its UC total rise above its initial pandemic peak of 9,773 people (proportion 19.8) recorded in December 2020. The first month when Hyndburn's total was above its initial pandemic peak was July 2022 (9,835 people). The proportion for Hyndburn was also above its previous December 2020 peak (19.8%) in July 2022 (20.0%).

In the Lancashire-14 local authority area of Blackburn with Darwen, the total number of people on Universal Credit once again reached its recent Covid-19 pandemic low point in January 2022, at 18,684 people (proportion 20.0%). Since January 2022 the total has risen by 9.8% (up 1,823 people) and the proportion has increased by 1.9 percentage points as at July 2023. Blackburn with Darwen was the joint third Lancashire-14 local authority area (together with Hyndburn) to see its UC total rise above its initial pandemic peak of 19,070 people (proportion 20.4) recorded in June 2021. The first month when Blackburn with Darwen's total was above its initial pandemic peak (19,070 people) was in July 2022 (19,206 people). The proportion for Blackburn with Darwen also surpassed its previous June 2021 peak (20.4%) in July 2022 (20.5%).

For Rossendale, the total number of people on Universal Credit also reached its recent Covid-19 pandemic low point in January 2022, at 5,778 people (proportion 13.2%). Since January 2022 the total has risen by 13.9% (up 805 people) and the proportion has increased by 1.8 percentage points as at July 2023. Rossendale was the joint fifth Lancashire-14 local authority area (together with Burnley) to see its UC total rise above its initial pandemic peak of 6,183 people (proportion 14.1) recorded in February 2021. The first month when Rossendale's total was above its initial pandemic peak was November 2022 (6,186 people). The proportion for Rossendale was first above its previous February 2021 peak (14.1%) a month later in December 2022 (14.2%).

In Burnley, the total number of people on Universal Credit reached its recent Covid-19 pandemic low point in March 2022, at 12,213 people (proportion 22.7%). Since March 2022 the total has risen by 11.0% (up 1,338 people) and the proportion has increased by 2.5 percentage points as at July 2023. Burnley was the joint fifth Lancashire-14 local authority area (together with Rossendale) to see its UC total rise above its initial pandemic peak of 12,818 people (proportion 23.9) recorded in March 2021. The first month when Burnley's total was above its initial pandemic peak was November 2022 (12,867 people). The proportion for Burnley was first above its previous March 2021 peak (23.9%) also in November 2022 (24.0%).    

For West Lancashire, the total number of people on Universal Credit reached its recent Covid-19 pandemic low point in January 2022, at 8,517 people (proportion 12.3%). Since January 2022 the total has risen by 11.6% (up 988 people) and the proportion has increased by 1.4 percentage points as at July 2023. West Lancashire was the seventh Lancashire-14 local authority area to see its UC total rise above its initial pandemic peak of 9,208 people (proportion 13.3) recorded in February 2021. The first month when West Lancashire's total was above its initial pandemic peak was January 2023 (9,212 people). The proportion for West Lancashire was first above its previous February 2021 peak (13.3%) a month later in February 2023 (13.4%).

In the Lancashire-14 local authority area of Blackpool, the total number of people on Universal Credit reached its recent Covid-19 pandemic low point a little later than the rest of the local areas - in May 2022, at 21,191 people (proportion 25.3%). Since May 2022, the total is higher by 7.0% (up 1,480 people) and the proportion is greater by 1.7 percentage points as at July 2023. Blackpool was the eighth Lancashire-14 local authority area to see its UC total rise above its initial pandemic peak of 22,781 people (proportion 27.2) recorded in March 2021. The first month when Blackpool's total was above its initial pandemic peak (22,781 people) was in April 2023 (22,786 people). The proportion for Blackpool was the same as its previous March 2021 peak (27.2%) in April 2023. However, the total number of people on UC in Blackpool fell in May and June of 2023 but increased again in July 2023. As at July 2023, the UC total for Blackpool (22,671) is once again below its initial pandemic peak (of 22,781 people) by 110 people. Blackpool's proportion at 27.0% in July 2023 is also once again below the initial pandemic peak of 27.2%.          

In Chorley, the total number of people on Universal Credit reached its recent Covid-19 pandemic low point in January 2022, at 7,640 people (proportion 10.4%). Since January 2022 the total has risen by 10.4% (up 794 people) and the proportion has increased by 1.1 percentage points as at July 2023. Chorley was the joint ninth Lancashire-14 local authority area (together with South Ribble) to see its UC total rise above its initial pandemic peak of 8,356 people (proportion 11.4) recorded in December 2020. The first month when Chorley's total was above its initial pandemic peak was July 2023 (8,434 people) by 78 people (+0.9%). The proportion for Chorley was also above its previous December 2020 peak (11.4%) in July 2023 by 0.1 percentage point at 11.5%.

In South Ribble, the total number of people on Universal Credit reached its recent Covid-19 pandemic low point in March 2022, at 6,759 people (proportion 10.1%). Since March 2022 the total has risen by 10.2% (up 689 people) and the proportion has increased by 1.0 percentage point at July 2023. South Ribble was the joint ninth Lancashire-14 local authority area (together with Chorley) to see its UC total rise above its initial pandemic peak of 7,413 people (proportion 11.1) recorded in March 2021. The first month when South Ribble's total was above its initial pandemic peak (7,413 people) was in July 2023 (7,448 people) by 35 people (0.5%). The proportion for South Ribble was the same as its previous March 2021 peak (11.1%) in April 2023.

The total number of people on Universal Credit within the four remaining Lancashire-14 areas of Wyre, Ribble Valley, Fylde and Lancaster have all increased since January or March of 2022, but not yet exceeded their initial pandemic peak totals. Of these three areas, the UC total for Wyre (8,886 people) in July 2023 is 100 people (-1.1%) below its initial peak number (8,986 people) recorded in February 2021. The July 2023 proportion for Wyre (14.0%) is just 0.1 percentage point below its February 2021 peak proportion (14.1%). In Ribble Valley, the UC total (2,719 people) in July 2023, is 145 people (-5.1%) below its initial peak number (2,864 people) recorded in January 2021. The July 2023 proportion for Ribble Valley (7.4%) is 0.4 percentage points below its January 2021 figure (7.8%). For Fylde, the UC total in July 2023 of 5,465 people is 296 people (-5.1%) below its initial peak number (5,761 people) recorded in February 2021. The July 2023 proportion for Fylde (11.9%) is 0.6 percentage points below its February 2021 peak proportion (12.5%). In Lancaster, the UC total of 13,061 people in July 2023 is 1,808 people (-12.2%) below its initial peak number (14,869 people) recorded in February 2021. The proportion for Lancaster in July 2023 of 13.9% is 0.9 percentage points below its February 2021 peak proportion (14.8%).

Since the recent UC total low points of January, March or May of 2022, of the four areas that have not exceeded their initial pandemic peaks yet, Ribble Valley (17.1%, up 397 people) has seen the greatest percentage increase, followed by Fylde (up 11.2%, 551 people) and Wyre (up 8.8%, 721 people). Lancaster has seen the lowest percentage increase in the Lancashire-14 since its 2022 low point (up just 3.0%, 386 people). In terms of the increases to the proportions for these four areas, Fylde (up 1.2 percentage points) and Wyre (up 1.2 percentage points) have seen the largest increases from their low points, followed by Ribble Valley (up 1.1 percentage points). Lancaster has seen the smallest increase in the L-14 area since its low point (up just 0.4 percentage points).

In the Lancashire-12 area, the total number of people on Universal Credit reached its recent Covid-19 pandemic low point in March 2022, at 103,556 people (proportion 13.9%). Since this time the total has risen by 10.3% (10,699 people) and the proportion has increased by 1.4 percentage points to 15.3% as at July 2023. The area's total at July 2023 (114,255 people) has exceeded its initial pandemic peak figure of 109,802 people (proportion 14.7%) by 4,453 people (4.1%) and Lancashire-12's UC total proportion is 0.6 percentage points greater than its initial Covid-19 peak (14.7%) in March 2022. The first month when the Lancashire-12's total was above its initial pandemic peak (109,802 people) was in December 2022 (110,280 people). The proportion for the Lancashire-12 area was also above its previous March 2021 peak (14.7%) in December 2022 (14.8%).  

For the Lancashire-14 area, the total number of people on Universal Credit also reached its recent Covid-19 pandemic low point in March 2022, at 143,595 people (proportion 15.6%). Since this time, the UC total has risen by 9.6% (13,838 people) and the proportion has increased by 1.5 percentage points to 17.1% as at July 2023. The area's total at July 2023 (157,433 people) has exceeded its initial pandemic peak figure of 151,582 people (proportion 16.4%) by 5,851 people (3.9%) and Lancashire-14's UC total proportion is 0.7 percentage points greater than its initial Covid-19 peak (16.4%) in March 2022. The first month when the Lancashire-14's total was above its initial pandemic peak (151,582 people) was in December 2022 (152,299 people). The proportion for the Lancashire-14 area was also above its previous March 2021 peak (16.4%) in December 2022 (16.5%).

In Great Britain, the total number of people on Universal Credit again reached its recent Covid-19 pandemic low point in March 2022, at 5,528,186 people (proportion 13.6%). Since that time the total has risen by 8.7% (up 479,984 people) and the proportion has increased by 1.2 percentage points to 14.8% as at July 2023. As at July 2023, the GB UC total is 45,403 people (0.8%) above its initial Covid-19 pandemic peak and the GB UC total proportion is 0.1 percentage point above its initial peak of 14.7%. The first month when GB's UC total exceeded its initial pandemic peak figure of 5,962,677 people (proportion 14.7%) was in July 2023 (6,008,080). The proportion for GB was also above its previous March 2022 peak (14.7%) in July 2023 (14.8%).

For the North West, the total number of people on Universal Credit reached its recent Covid-19 pandemic low point in January 2022, at 713,577 people (proportion 15.6%). Since that month the total has risen by 8.8% (62,503 people) and the proportion has increased by 1.4 percentage points to 17.0% as at July 2023. The North West's total at July 2023 (776,080 people) has exceeded its initial pandemic peak figure of 757,768 people (proportion 16.6%) by 18,312 people (2.4%) and the North West's UC total proportion is 0.4 percentage points greater than its initial Covid-19 peak (16.6%) in March 2021. The first month when the North West's total was above its initial pandemic peak (757,768 people) was in April 2023 (761,481 people). The proportion for the North West in April 2023 (16.7%) was also above its previous March 2021 peak (16.6%) by 0.1 percentage point.

Dates of the initial Universal Credit peaks during the Covid-19 pandemic (recorded in 2020/21) by geographic area

Change in Universal Credit totals from the initial UC Covid-19 pandemic peaks (Dec 2020 to October 2021 in the Lancashire-14 area) to the January, March or May 2022 low points

The number of people on Universal Credit decreased by lower percentages in the Lancashire-12 area (down 6.0%) and the Lancashire-14 area (down 5.6%) than in Great Britain (down 7.9%) between the initial UC peaks recorded in March 2021, and the low points recorded in March 2022.

Between their respective initial Covid-19 pandemic peaks in 2020/21 and their respective lows in early 2022, the Universal Credit totals fell by 7.9% (down 434,491 people) in Great Britain, but by lower percentages of 6.2% (down 44,191 people) in the North West, by 6.0% (down 6,246 people) in the Lancashire-12 area and by 5.6% (7,987 people) in the Lancashire-14 area.  Since their respective 2020/21 peaks and early 2022 lows, the proportions of people aged 16-64 on Universal Credit decreased by 1.1 percentage points in Great Britain, by 1.0 percentage point in the North West, and by 0.8 percentage points in both the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas.

Within the Lancashire-12 area, the local authority areas have seen reductions to the total number of people on Universal Credit between their respective initial Covid-19 2020/21 peaks and their early 2022 lows, ranging from falls of 23.3% in Ribble Valley (down 542 people), 17.3% in Lancaster (down 2,194 people) and 17.2% in Fylde (down 847 people), down to decreases of just 2.8% in Hyndburn (down 265 people), 2.6% in Preston (down 392 people) and 1.2% in Pendle (down 115 people). In the Lancashire-14 area, Blackburn with Darwen also saw a relatively small percentage reduction in total numbers of 2.1% (down 386 people) from the peak to trough. In Blackpool total numbers fell by 7.5% (down 1,590 people).

Looking at the decreases to the Universal Credit total proportions in the Lancashire-12 area, Fylde (down 1.8 percentage points), saw the greatest reduction between the initial Covid-19 pandemic peaks in 2020/21 to the early 2022 lows, followed by Ribble Valley (down 1.5 percentage points), Lancaster (down 1.3 percentage points) and Wyre (down 1.3 percentage points). The fall in Great Britain was 1.1 percentage point; a drop of 1.0 percentage point in the North West; and reductions of 0.8 percentage points in both the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas.

In contrast, the total UC proportion for Pendle fell by just 0.2 percentage points from its initial pandemic peak to the early 2022 low point. The proportion for Preston dropped by just 0.4 percentage points, whilst the proportion for Hyndburn fell by 0.5 percentage points.

In the wider Lancashire-14 area, the proportion for Blackburn with Darwen also fell by 0.4 percentage points from its initial pandemic peak to its early 2022 low point. The proportion for Blackpool fell by 1.9 percentage points, the greatest reduction in the Lancashire-14 area.     

Initial Covid-19 lockdown change between March 2020 and May 2020

Owing to the initial lockdown on 23 March 2020 in response to the coronavirus pandemic, the UK economy subsequently experienced a sharp, deep recession. Recovery of the economy to its pre-pandemic level was achieved in Quarter 1 (January to March) of 2022. The economic downturn was reflected in a substantial rise in the number of people on Universal Credit between March 2020 and May 2020.

In the Lancashire-12 area, UC total numbers rose from 60,594 in March 2020 to 99,812 in May 2020 (+39,218 persons, +64.7%). In the Lancashire-14 area, numbers increased from 84,349 in March 2020 to 137,072 persons in May 2020 (+52,723 persons, +62.5%). In Great Britain, total numbers rose from 3,011,519 in March 2020 to 5,255,668 persons in May 2020 (+2,244,149 people, +74.5%).

Whereas the increase in rates were higher for the Lancashire-12 and Lancashire-14 areas than for Great Britain between March 2020 and April 2020, the increases were lower than the GB rise between April 2020 and May 2020.

The immediate impact of the lockdown on the Universal Credit total showed that between March 2020 and April 2020, the GB rate for the total number of persons on Universal Credit rose by 2.9 percentage points, to 10.3%. The rate for the Lancashire-12 area increased by a greater 3.3 percentage points, to 11.4%. The rate for the Lancashire-14 area increased by an even larger 3.6 percentage points over the month, to 12.7%. For the previous month, between February 2020 and March 2020, the rates for all these areas increased by just 0.2 percentage points.

Between April 2020 and May 2020, the GB rate for the total number of persons on Universal Credit rose by 2.6 percentage points, to 12.9%. The rate for the Lancashire-14 area increased by a lower 2.2 percentage points, but to 14.9%. The rate for the Lancashire-12 area increased by a marginally lower 2.0 percentage points over the month, but to 13.4%.

Yearly change in Universal Credit totals and rates

see dashboard (above) for data and graphs

'Not in employment' Universal Credit category: numbers, rates and change

For monthly and yearly changes in 'Not in employment' UC numbers and rates see the above dashboard for data and graphs

'In employment' Universal Credit category: numbers, rates and change

For monthly and yearly changes to 'In employment' UC numbers and rates see the above dashboard for data and graph

Notes on 16-64 denominators, January 2016 to December 2018 revisions and the Universal Credit full service rollout 

Notes on 16-64 denominators

Please note that the mid-year population estimates for persons aged 16 to 64 have been updated and now use the 2020 estimates from January 2020 onwards. These estimates are used to calculate the proportions of working age people on Universal Credit in each area.  In addition, the mid-year population estimates from January to April in each year from 2015 to 2019 have been changed and now use the respective mid-year population estimates for the whole of each calendar year.  For example, the 2016 mid-year population estimates are now used for all months from January to December in 2016.  The estimates were updated by Lancashire County Council Business Intelligence with the May 2021 revised Universal Credit data, published on the Lancashire Insight web site in August 2021. Some of the proportions published previously may have changed marginally as a result of the changes and update.   

Notes on 16-64 denominators as at 17 October 2023

The 16 to 64 working age population denominators used to calculate the proportions for the number of people on Universal Credit for geographic areas are still based on the 2020 mid-year estimates from January 2021 onwards in the above analysis.

The 2021 and 2022 mid-year estimates will be updated when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases the rebased mid-year estimates for the years from 2012 to 2020 (to align with the 2021 Census estimates). The 2012 to 2020 rebased mid-year estimates were scheduled to be published in September 2023, but these have been delayed with the publication date now expected on 23 November 2023.

Analysis of the Universal Credit proportions for July 2023, but utilising the 2021 mid-year population estimates shows that the Universal Credit total proportion for Great Britain will decrease by 0.1 percentage point when compared to the existing (non-rebased) 2020 mid-year estimates. The North West and Lancashire-12 total proportions will each reduced by 0.2 percentage points; and the Lancashire-14 total proportion will fall by 0.3 percentage points.

In the Lancashire-14 area, analysis of the July 2023 total proportions (based on 2021 mid-year estimates) show that 9 of the areas will show a decrease to their proportions, two will be unchanged and three will increase. The Burnley UC total proportion will be revised down by the greatest amount in the area (down 2.0 percentage points (pps)), followed by the total proportions for Blackpool and Pendle (each down by 1.0 pps), Blackburn with Darwen (down 0.8 pps), Preston, Hyndburn and West Lancashire (each down by 0.6 pps), Fylde (down by 0.2 pps) and South Ribble (down by 0.1 pps).

The two local authority areas of Wyre and Ribble Valley will show no difference to their July 2023 Universal Credit total proportions when the 2021 mid-year population estimates are applied (when compared to the existing (non-rebased) 2020 mid-year estimates). The July 2023 Universal Credit total proportion for Chorley and Rossendale will each show an increase of 0.1 percentage point and Lancaster a rise of 0.7 percentage points when the 2021 mid-year population estimates are applied.

Please note that the 2022 mid-year population estimates accredited as National Statistics were not available at the time of writing. The expected publication date is now expected to be 23 November 2023. Application of the rebased mid-year population estimates from 2012 to 2020, plus the application of the 2021 and 2022 mid-year population estimates is likely to result in further changes to the Universal Credit proportions (and related analysis) on this web page when the revised 16 to 64 year-old working age population denominators are eventually applied.

Important notice: data revised downwards from January 2016 to December 2018

The DWP has identified problems relating to individuals with multiple spells on Universal Credit (UC). Instead of showing multiple distinct periods of time when UC was claimed, individuals appear as if they had been on one long claim that started at the time of their original claim. In addition, owing to the input of incorrect dates, some individuals were recorded as being on UC for short periods before or after their genuine start and end dates.

The DWP has now resolved the above issues. As a result, the number of people on Universal Credit has been revised downwards from 8 January 2016 to 13 December 2018. The number removed increases over time, with 36,895 persons (2.4%) removed from the people on UC total at the GB level between the the provisional release of the December 2018 data (published in January 2019) and the revised release of the December 2018 data (published in February 2019). For the Lancashire-12 area, 1,292 persons (7.9%) were removed from the people on UC total over the same period, with downward revisions ranging from 7 people in Ribble Valley to 281 persons in Burnley, and 318 persons in Lancaster. Totals for previous months have also been corrected downwards. 

The issue was addressed in the 19th February 2019 Universal Credit Official Experimental Statistics publication. The DWP recommends that users do not use previously published Universal Credit Official Statistics for People on Universal Credit made between 8th January 2016 and 13th December 2018. Further details are contained the Statistical Notice published by the DWP on 19 February 2019.

Universal Credit full service provision rollout

Data

Page updated 18 October 2023