Labour force projections
Labour force projections are a valuable tool to understand an area, in terms of the future supply of labour and the availability of labour to satisfy the needs of development. There are no national forecasts of labour supply. The article below discussed five different population projection scenarios. Results are visualised in the dashboard below.
After a constant rate of increase in the labour force between 2001 and 2011, all of the forecasts show the pace of change levelling out. The OBR2018 scenario predicts the largest increase in the economically active population, whilst the constant scenario shows a decline in the labour force in most areas. Chorley shows the largest rate of increase in all scenarios, and Hyndburn shows the greatest reduction in the economically active population across all scenarios. In all scenarios Blackpool, Burnley, Hyndburn and South Ribble show a decline in their economically active population. Only Chorley increases in all scenarios.
National trends include the later entry of young adults into the labour market, a continuing increase in women’s economic activity and a later exit from the labour market partly as a result of changes to the State Pension Age. In Lancashire, the over 65s are predicted to make up slightly more of the economically active population year on year, rising from 3% to nearly 5% of the workforce based on the constant and EC2015 scenarios and 8% based on the OBR2018 scenario. Females are predicted to make up between 46% and 48% of the workforce, broadly similar to the current 47%.
These projections do not take into account local policies, such as City Deal and projections become increasingly uncertain as they go forward into the future and therefore are for illustrative purposes only.
For help on using this dashboard, please look at our tips and hints (PDF, 454KB).
Feedback on this dashboard would be welcomed to BusinessIntelligence.LancashireInsight@lancashire.gov.uk.
Please feel free to use any of the information in our dashboards, acknowledging Lancashire Insight when you do.
Last updated January 2019