Lancashire SEND sufficiency needs assessment and capital plan

In Lancashire, we have high aspirations for all our children and young people, whatever their starting point. Children should have access to a quality learning pathway so that they can thrive and develop the skills that will support them into a productive and happy adulthood. The council's ambition is to ensure that children of all abilities do well in school or college, and are able to gain important skills and expertise for life. This reflects the Council ambitions for Better Lives For All, Economic Ambition, Stronger Communities and Thinking Differently.

We want to make sure this Plan helps to deliver the SEND Strategy 2025-28 and the Priority Action Plan. It aims to deliver high quality schools and places for young people with special needs close to where they live. Consultation carried out with stakeholders across education, health, and parent carers have contributed to the development of this plan.

The SEND Capital Plan sets out a framework for capital investment of £57 million over the next 3 years as well as proposals for any further funding for specialist provision that may be allocated to Lancashire in future years.

Projects detailed in the plan include:

• Creating new Special Schools to meet forecast needs in key areas.

• Increasing capacity in our existing Special Schools, ensuring that provision reflects the current and forecast mix of needs.

• Continued development of SEND Units in mainstream settings.

• Improving accessibility and inclusive environments across mainstream settings, including maintained Nursery Schools.

• Developing settings for high quality post 19 provision.

SEND Landscape

Lancashire is the 4th largest county in England by population size. Covering almost 1000 square miles it includes urban, rural, suburban and coastal regions.

The January 2025 census indicated that there were 12,202 children and young people with EHCPs in Lancashire. It should also be noted that a recovery plan is starting to address the 1850 overdue EHCP assessments (June 2025) at speed so this number is expected to grow rapidly by January 2026. The significant increase in the number of EHCPs in Lancashire has mirrored the rise nationally. From academic year 2015/2016 to January 2025 the number of EHCPs in Lancashire has grown by 134%.

Latest DFE statistics show that 5.5% of children in Lancashire educational settings have EHCPs which is above the national figure of 5.3%. When the assessments which are currently being addressed through the Recovery Plan are finalised as completed EHCPs it is likely that this figure will rise to around 9%. Lancashire’s figures have been consistently above the figure for England over the last 5 years with the gap increasing slightly over time.

When looking at types of educational settings, the Department For Education Statistics (2024) indicate that 39.8% of all children and young people with EHCPs in Lancashire attend a mainstream setting. This is lower than the national figure for the same period which shows 43.3% of children and young people with EHCPs educated in mainstream settings.

SEND support figures show that a smaller percentage of Lancashire pupils are identified, 13.2% compared with the national figure of 14.2%, although the gap between the figure for England and that of Lancashire has narrowed over the last 5 years. (DFE stats 2024/25 – children in educational settings)

EHC plans and SEN support in Lancashire

EHC plans and SEN support in England

District percentage of all Lancashire EHCPs

There are 12 districts in Lancashire, each with it's own unique profile of needs.

Percentage of total EHCPs in Lancashire by district:

• Lancaster 13%

• Fylde 6%

• Wyre 8%

• Preston 13%

• Chorley 9%

• South Ribble 8%

• West Lancashire 9%

• Rossendale 7%

• Hyndburn 7%

• Burnley 10%

• Ribble Valley 3%

• Pendle 9%

The 3 districts with the largest number of EHCPS are: Lancaster, Preston and Chorley. 35% of children and young people with EHCPs in Lancashire live within these 3 areas.

The 3 districts with the lowest number of EHCPS are: Ribble Valley, Pendle and Rossendale. 16% of children and young people with EHCPs are within these 3 areas.

% of all EHCPs (Jan 25 data)

35% Autism (ASD)

20% Social, Emotional, Mental Health (SEMH)

21% Speech, Language, Communication Needs (SLCN)

9% Moderate Learning Difficulties (MLD)

5% Physical Difficulty

4% Severe Learning Difficulties (SLD)

2% Hearing Impairment (HI)

2% Visual Impairment (VI)

1% Profound Medical and Learning Disabilities (PMLD)

1% Specific Learning Difficulty

0.2% Multiple Sensory Impairment

For children and young people with EHCPs in Lancashire Autism is the largest area of need at 35%, followed by Speech, Language and Communication Needs (21%) and Social, Emotional, Mental Health needs (20%).

• 24 maintained nursery schools

• 509 Primary schools

• 86 secondaries

• 29 special schools

• 9 PRUs

• 20 SEND units

• 4 SERFs

Lancashire special schools

Totals:

• 3382 pre 16

• 441 post 16

• 3823 total

Lancashire SEND Units and SERFs (Special Educational Resource Facilities)

Total: 308

Lancashire Pupil Referral Units (PRUs)

Total: 855

In summary, for 2025/26 Lancashire commissions 4994 SEND and AP places. The majority of these, 3823 are within maintained and Academy Special Schools, with a further 308 places in SEND Units or SERFs located within mainstream schools. 855 places are commissioned across Pupil referral Units to deliver 6^th day provision, short term medical placements and time limited intervention places designed to prevent permanent exclusion.

Background to data sources and modelling assumptions

Analysis and proposals have been based on the best available data at the time of review and assumptions have been made about trends and future growth. It is important to note that within the modelling undertaken there are some things that cannot be accounted for. Population predictions contain a range of uncertainties including birth rates, housing developments, internal and external migration. In addition, SEND predictions contain uncertainties around the possible impact of national policies and trends in types of primary need.

Key data sources for this work have included:

• school census data

• SEN2 returns

• AP census data

• Lancashire internally held EHCP

Further information has been sought from areas such as Early Years providers, parent carers and the specialist teaching service to provide a wider picture of SEND provision in Lancashire. This has helped us to find out about groups of children and young people who may not be clearly seen in the data.

Historic EHCP trends

The number of EHCPs in Lancashire has grown steadily over the last 5 years in line with what has been seen in the rest of England. The percentage of the school population with an EHCP has also increased and is now higher than the national figures. In comparison, the percentage of children and young people at SEND support in Lancashire schools remains below the figures for England.

EHCPs as a percentage of school population:

SEND support as a percentage of school population

Over the last 3 years the number of EHCPs has grown by 28%.  The primary needs which have seen the biggest increase over this time have been Speech, Language and Communication Difficulties, ASD and Specific Learning Difficulty.  Due to the relatively small numbers for SLD this primary need still only makes up 1% of all Lancashire EHCPS.  What is significant is that ASD and SLCN together now account for 56% of EHCPs.  Some declines have been seen for SLD, MLD.  For some areas of need the numbers are so small that the percentage change must be considered carefully in context.  It will be important to keep future data under review to see if these trends continue.

The increase in EHCPs is forecast to continue growing at a steady rate across Lancashire. Using population data as well as historic EHCPs trends this forecast has focused on the school age population.

Analysis of the recent trends suggest that ASD and SLCN will continue to be the largest primary needs areas. It also indicates that SEMH numbers continue to rise resulting in this area of need remaining a significant proportion of total EHCPs. Numbers of EHCPs for sensory impairment and PMLD are remaining largely stable.

Future modelling has identified the East of the county as areas which will continue to see significant percentage increase in EHCPs. Preston has also been highlighted as an area of growth due to several population factors.

39.8% of Lancashire children and young people with EHCPs are educated in mainstream schools. This is below the national figure of 43.3% but has increased from 30.5% in 2020. It is expected that this will continue to increase as the number of EHCPs increase and children and young people are supported to attend a school as close to their home as possible.

When looking at the data for those age groups outside of school age population numbers of EHCPs for young people both in Early Years and Post 19 have remained largely consistent and are forecast to continue to do so. This reflects the trends that are seen in the primary needs areas which are most commonly seen in EHCPs for these age groups, PMLD, SLD and MSI. For Post 19 this group represents 7% of all EHCPS (January 2025) whilst the total post 16 cohort make up 23% of all EHCPs.

A review of current sufficiency and commissioning information has identified the following key gaps relating to consistency of offer across the county:

• Lack of comprehensive commissioning for Post 19.

• Although there are schools designated to cater for Early Years, operationally there are no pre-Reception cohorts and no current capacity in existing special school buildings to accommodate this need.

• Lack of provision across the county for young people with ASD requiring GCSEs / A Levels but with needs that can’t be met in mainstream environment.

• Intensive Support Units (for ASD with very high support needs) as part of GLD schools needed in all areas except East and Preston.

• SEMH school required to serve Lancaster district in the North of the county as well as further provision to meet need in the East of the county.

• The rapid development of Primary SEND units means that there is an urgent need for secondary units for those children and young people who will continue to require this provision from 11-16.

Information from the future trends modelling highlight that demand in the East of the county is continuing to grow at a faster rate than elsewhere, the current special schools in this area are already at capacity and so there is a growing reliance on placements in Independent Special Schools. This means that there is a need to look at what capacity solutions can be found across the East, for both GLD provision and SEMH.

Implications of continued increase of numbers of EHCPs for primary need of SEMH are the requirement for an increased number of specialist places. Given the size of current settings, both in terms of pupil numbers and site, this will be difficult to achieve through expansions and so new provisions should be considered. 

It is clear from historical trends and future modelling that the numbers of Early Years and Post 19 EHCPs are remaining stable. It will be important to ensure that there is enough capacity in settings which are designated to take Early Years children to support this cohort as well as the school age population. Having clarity around Post 19 pathways and provision will be important to ensure that these young people are supported into adulthood and reduce the cost to the High Needs Block spend.

As highlighted previously there are some uncertainties in projections and so it will be important to continue to review trends and projections annually. These reviews will influence whether the delivery plan for the following years is still appropriate or whether amendments are necessary.

In developing a prioritised delivery plan for the use of the available budget from High Needs Provision Capital Allowance consideration was given to the following points:

1. addressing the gaps in provision across districts to ensure consistency of offer

2. Using data analysis of trends to forecast where there is likely to be increased demand for particular needs above current sufficiency

3. Ensuring best value for money by considering available resources in Lancashire's property estate

4. Which projects are likely to have most impact on reducing High Needs Block spend in the independent sector

The following proposals align to both the Council Plan 2025/26 and the Local Area Partnership SEND Strategy 2025-28. The implementation of this plan will support the delivery of these key Strategies by increasing the number of specialist places across Lancashire so that children and young people can attend an educational setting as close to home as possible.

New provisions

It has been identified that both the East and North of the county need significant numbers of special school places which could not be filled by expansions to existing sites.

Between 2021 and 2024 Lancaster was the area with the highest number of children and young people with EHCPs in independent placements. In addition, during this time Lancaster saw an increase of 45% of placements in independent settings indicating that the need in this area is continuing to grow. There is no SEMH specialist provision for either primary or secondary aged pupils in this area.

The districts showing the fastest growing increases in demand for independent placements because of lack of sufficiency in the area are Burnley (50% increase in independent placements), Rossendale (85%) and Pendle (94%). Whilst there may still be opportunities for expanding GLD special schools in these areas the SEMH secondary provision site could not be easily expanded. The sites of both the Primary and Secondary schools supporting children and young people with a range of SEND have also either reached capacity or present significant difficulties for physical expansion meaning that alternative sites will need to be considered.

With the limited budget available this has informed prioritising Lancaster and the East of the county for new provisions.

Expansions

Lancashire's maintained special schools are highly regarded, with many judged to be Outstanding by Ofsted. Work has been undertaken with the schools to identify which sites are able to be expanded to provide quality education for a larger number of children and young people within settings which are already running effectively. To ensure equality of provision across Lancashire and support children and young people being able to attend a school as close to home as possible gaps have been identified which could be filled by expansions of our existing special schools.

Expansions are proposed in schools which include the Early Years age range as part of their designation but are currently unable to support this cohort due to capacity being taken by school age and post 16 pupils. 

There are currently 3 GLD special schools which have Intensive Support Units for Autistic young people who have very high support needs. Where this isn't available in the other parts of the county Lancashire is reliant on independent placements. To support the needs for this group of young people placements in independent settings are typically over £90,000 per pupil per year. It is therefore recommended that where possible, expansions at existing GLD schools enable the development of Intensive Support Units to ensure children and young people can access an appropriate school as close to home as possible.

SEND Units

The precise locations for SEND Units within existing mainstream schools will be identified through an open application process. Schools will be required to submit an application which will then be scored against specific criteria including evidence of strong inclusive practice, value for money and capacity of leadership to deliver effective SEND provision.

If a school and the capital project needed for a SEND Unit is thought to be appropriate, then this will need to be confirmed through consultation with local stakeholders and agreement of a material change with the DFE.

Accessibility and improved inclusivity of environment

All children and young people are entitled to mainstream education and should be able to attend a school in their community. The Local Partnership SEND Strategy 2025-28 sets out the vision of mainstream schools in Lancashire becoming as inclusive as possible.

Environmental features in mainstream schools can have a big impact on the extent to which children and young people with SEND are able to access settings successfully. This includes elements such as improving acoustics through carpeting hallways and fitting acoustic solutions to ceilings; improving the ability to adapt lighting in classroom areas, enabling direct access to secure outside areas and establishing areas for sensory regulation.

There will be a fund of £2milliion made available for mainstream settings who wish to access capital funding for small schemes which would improve their inclusive environment and support many children and young people with SEND. As the HNPCA is for all young people with SEND age 0-25 it is proposed that the scope of this allocation includes maintained nursery schools as well as primary and secondary mainstream schools

An application process will be in place for settings to access this fund with a cross-service panel in place to oversee allocations and monitoring of impact.

Post 19 provisions

Currently all young people who require provision post 19 are placed in a variety of independent placements, and alternative provision. There is currently no process in place for the local authority to guide the provision in this sector and so the availability of this is mixed across the county. Young people are often not able to be based in their own communities. This then impacts on their ability to be involved socially where they live and on their employment opportunities.

Having a defined Framework for Post 19 provision would support young people and their families with the transition to adulthood and related services, whether that be into supported living, supported internships or adult social care pathway. It would ensure equity of offer across the county and allow providers to establish robust relationships with employers in the area. It is suggested that a Framework for Post 19 provision is developed for providers to tender for. One of the Academy Special Schools has an ISP Post 19 setting and other existing maintained special schools have indicated that they would be interested in developing a Post 19 offer. Capital funding will support settings with ensuring they have suitable premises for delivering a high quality Post 19 provision should they become part of the Framework.

The Local Authority receives funding from Department for Education to increase places for young people with EHCPs through the High Needs Provision Capital Allocations (HNPCA). Lancashire has approximately £38,000,000 available from previous allocations. An additional £19,000,000 has recently been allocated to Lancashire for 2025/26, giving a total of approximately £57,000,000.

A programme of works for completion Autumn 25 / Spring 26 is already underway which will increase places across special schools and through the development of SEND units within mainstream schools. This will provide 108 places in SEND units and 169 special school places within a budget of £12,668,400.

This SEND Capital Plan is an ambitious plan designed to address gaps in sufficiency across Lancashire. It has been planned across a number of years to ensure capacity to deliver projects. This will also allow us to keep data and wider information under review and respond to any short-term urgent needs that may arise outside of the long-term programme. 

Given the current amount of money available and initial high-level estimates of works it is assumed that additional HPCNA will be received to deliver all projects proposed for year 2026/27. All projects identified for 2027/28 will be dependent on future allocations of HPCNA. 

Precise costs for individual projects will not be confirmed until detailed specification and tendering processes have been completed. Consultation processes for specific projects will be carried out with the engagement of all relevant stakeholders as the projects develop. The feedback from consultations will be considered alongside detailed costs before any approvals for individual projects are given.

2025-26

Rossendale

• Needs to be met: SEMH KS2 – KS5

• Project type: New school

East Lancashire

• Needs to be met: ASD mainstream curriculum / medical KS2 – KS5

• Project type: New school

Burnley

• Needs to be met: Primary GLD

• Project type: Special school expansion

Pendle

• Needs to be met: Early Years

• Project type: Special school expansion

Lancaster

• Needs to be met: Post 19

• Project type: TBC

Preston

• Needs to be met: Post 19

• Project type: TBC

East

• Needs to be met: Post 19

• Project type: TBC

Wyre

• Needs to be met: Secondary SEND unit SLCN

• Project type: Mainstream SEND unit

West Lancs

• Needs to be met: Secondary SEND unit SLCN

• Project type: Mainstream SEND unit

Lancaster

• Needs to be met: Secondary SEND unit SLCN

• Project type: Mainstream SEND unit

County wide

• Needs to be met: Increasing inclusive environment of mainstreams

• Project type: Fund which mainstream schools can bid for to enhance the inclusivity of their school through capital works.

2026-27

Chorley

• Provision to meet need: Intensive Support unit (ASD/ SLD),(Early Years spaces, assessment places for new to area)

• Project type: Special school expansion

Fylde

• Provision to meet need: SLD / PMLD 2-19 (Early Years spaces and assessment for new to area)

• Project type: Special school expansion

Hyndburn

• Provision to meet need: Primary GLD (Early Years / Intensive support unit)

• Project type: Special school expansion

Lancaster

• Provision to meet need: SEMH KS2 – KS4

• Project type: New school

Chorley

• Provision to meet need: Secondary SEND unit SLCN

• Project type: Mainstream SEND unit

Burnley

• Provision to meet need: Secondary SEND unit SLCN

• Project type: Mainstream SEND unit

Preston

• Provision to meet need: Primary SEND unit SEMH

• Project type: Mainstream SEND unit

2027-28

Centrally located

• Provision: ASD mainstream curriculum KS2 – KS5

• Project type: New school

West Lancs

• Provision: Post 19 provision

• Project type: TBC

Preston

• Provision: Secondary SEMH unit

• Project type: Mainstream SEND unit

West Lancs

• Provision: Primary SEMH unit

• Project type: Mainstream SEND unit

Lancaster

• Provision: Primary SEND unit SEMH

• Project type: Mainstream SEND unit

Fylde and Wyre

• Provision: Secondary SEND unit SEMH

• Project type: Mainstream SEND unit

2028 - 2030

New Schools – consider 11-19 GLD school in Lancaster, currently all through schools causing sufficiency issues for children and young people requiring special school for secondary.

SEND units – continue to develop so that each area has primary and secondary spaces for SEMH and SLCN.

Mainstream environment adjustments – including nursery schools.

Intensive support unit (ASD) in each area.

Special school expansions

SEND – Special Educational Needs and Disabilities

SEMH – Social, Emotional, Mental Health

ASD - Autism

SLCN - Speech, Language, Communication Needs

HI – Hearing Impairment

VI – Visual Impairment

PMLD – Profound Medical and Learning Disabilities

EHCP – Education, Health and Care Plan – legal document which sets out a young person's needs, the provision required to support the young person (across education, health and care services) and the name of the educational setting they should attend.

DFE – Department for Education

MLD – Moderate Learning Difficulties

SLD – Severe Learning Difficulties

SERF – Special Education Resource Facility – provision within a mainstream school which enables children and young people with SEND to access a mixture mainstream and enhanced provision.

SEND Unit – provision within a mainstream school which delivers enhanced support for children and young people with SEND

PRU – Pupil Referral Unit – these schools provide education for children who are unable to attend mainstream school for reasons such as exclusion, medical needs, or requiring short term support with social, emotional or mental health needs.

GLD Special schools – General Learning Difficulties – these special schools support pupils with a wide range of special educational needs and disabilities.