Mid-year population estimates

Important note

Please note that mid-year population estimates for the years 2012 to 2016 were revised by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on the 22 March 2018.

The statistical bulletin: Revised population estimates for England and Wales: mid-2012 to mid-2016, published by the ONS on the 22 March 2018 provides further detail about the revisions and access to the revised datasets

The ONS has also released a mid-year population estimates revision tool. This allows comparison of the original and revised estimates of the usually resident population for mid-2012 to mid-2016 (as at 30 June) at the sub-national level. Data are available by administrative area, single year of age, sex and component of population change.

One of the main changes to the methodology relates to the way student population estimates are modelled, particularly around international student emigration. Figures above the regional level have been held constant and are unchanged. 

Figures in the analysis below have been rounded to the nearest 100 persons. 

Summary

The revised 2016 mid-year population estimate for the Lancashire-14 area was 1,483,900 persons (1,100 persons lower than the original estimate for 2016). The Lancashire-12 area had a revised mid-year population estimate of 1,195,400 (3,400 lower than the original 2016 estimate).

Blackburn with Darwen (148,500) had the largest mid-year population of the 14 Lancashire authorities in 2016 (revised), followed by Lancaster (141,700), Preston (141,000) and Blackpool (140,000). Ribble Valley (58,900) and Rossendale (69,800) had the lowest estimates. The revisions for 2016 have seen South Ribble move above Wyre in the rankings. 

Figure 1: Revised 2016 mid-year population estimates (thousands) for local authorities with the Lancashire County Council 12-authority area and for Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool unitary authorities (rounded to nearest 100 persons).

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2016 mid-year population estimates (original and revised (22 March 2018)).

Table 1 shows that eight of the Lancashire-14 local authority areas have seen a reduction in their 2016 mid-year population estimates as a result of the revisions.

Lancaster (-1,800 people, -1.25%) has seen the largest reduction in the Lancashire-14 area as a result of the revised estimates, followed by Preston (-800 persons, -0.56%), Wyre (-300 people, -0.27%) and West Lancashire (-300 people, -0.26%).

Four of the Lancashire-14 local authority areas saw an increase in their 2016 mid-year population estimates as a result of the revisions.

Blackburn with Darwen (+1,500 persons, +1.02%), Blackpool (+800 people, +0.57%) and Fylde (+200 people, +0.26%) have seen the greatest increases as a result of the revised estimates. 

The decrease in Burnley was marginal (-23 persons) and showed no change when rounded to the nearest 100 persons. Similarly, the increase in South Ribble was marginal (+18 persons) and showed no change when rounded to the nearest 100 persons.  

The revisions for 2016 have seen South Ribble move marginally above Wyre in the mid-year population rankings within the Lancashire-14 area (see figure 1 above). This has arisen mainly owing to the revised mid-year population estimate for Wyre decreasing for 2016.  

Table 1: Revised 2016 mid-year population estimates (thousands) and original 2016 mid-year population estimates for local authorities within the Lancashire County Council 12-authority area and for Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool unitary authorities (rounded)

Area Original 2016 mid-year estimates (thousands) Revised 2016 mid-year estimates (thousands) Change between original and revised 2016 mid-year estimates (thousands) % Change between original and revised 2016 mid-year estimates
Burnley 87.5 87.5 0.0 0.00%
Chorley 114.4 114.3 -0.1 -0.09%
Fylde 78.0 78.2 0.2 0.26%
Hyndburn 80.5 80.4 -0.1 -0.12%
Lancaster 143.5 141.7 -1.8 -1.25%
Pendle 90.6 90.5 -0.1 -0.11%
Preston 141.8 141.0 -0.8 -0.56%
Ribble Valley 58.8 58.9 0.1 0.17%
Rossendale 69.9 69.8 -0.1 -0.14%
South Ribble 110.1 110.1 0.0 0.00%
West Lancashire 113.4 113.1 -0.3 -0.26%
Wyre 110.3 110.0 -0.3 -0.27%
Lancashire-12 area 1,198.8 1,195.4 -3.4 -0.28%
Blackburn with Darwen 147.0 148.5 1.5 1.02%
Blackpool 139.2 140.0 0.8 0.57%
Lancashire-14 area 1,485.0 1,483.9 -1.1 -0.07%
North West region 7,219.6 7,224.0 4.4 0.06%
England 55,268.1 55,268.1 0.0 0.00%
Wales 3,113.2 3,113.2 0.0 0.00%
England and Wales 58,381.2 58,381.2 0.0 0.00%
Scotland 5,404.7 5,404.7 0.0 0.00%
Northern Ireland 1,862.1 1,862.1 0.0 0.00%
Great Britain 63,785.9 63,785.9 0.0 0.00%
United Kingdom 65,648.1 65,648.1 0.0 0.00%

Note: Figures have been rounded to the nearest 100 persons. Change is based on the rounded figures. 

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2016 mid-year population estimates (original and revised (22 March 2018)).

 

Further data

Small area mid-year population estimates for 2016 (original data - not revised)

Mid-2016 LSOA population estimates by 5-year age bands and gender (CSV 176 KB)

Mid-2016 LSOA population estimates by single year of age and gender (EXCEL 1,187 KB)

Mid-2016 experimental ward population estimates by single year of age and gender (EXCEL 412 KB)

Page updated 29 March 2018