Model-Based Estimates of Unemployment for
Local Authority Districts and Unitary Authorities
January 2007 to December 2007
To overcome missing and imprecise unemployment data at the district level within the Annual Population Survey - Labour Force Survey, the Office for National Statistics has developed an annual model-based methodology that has enhanced the quality of ILO unemployment at the local level and enabled more reliable and precise unemployment estimates to be produced for local authority districts and unitary authorities. The new estimates are now accredited as National Statistics. The model based unemployment data is only available for total unemployment and is not subdivided by age or sex.
The model-based estimate improves on the annual LFS/APS estimate of unemployment by 'borrowing strength', mainly from the claimant count of Jobseeker's Allowance, to produce an estimate that is more precise (that is, it has a smaller confidence interval) than the direct annual LFS/APS estimate. The gain in precision is greatest for areas with smaller sample sizes.
Please note that the Model Based Estimates of Unemployment have been revised since the release of the October 2006 to September 2007 data. Figures are being revised for previous dates on a rolling basis and therefore figures may not match with figures previously published on this website.
| Total Unemployment | Yearly Change | Change since January 2004-December 2004 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number | ± | Rate | Confidence Interval ±(1) | Number | % | In Rate | Number | % | In Rate | |
| Burnley | 2,500 | 300 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 300 | 13.6 | 1.3 | 600 | 31.6 | 2.3 |
| Chorley | 2,000 | 200 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 500 | 33.3 | 0.7 |
| Fylde | 1,500 | 200 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 300 | 25.0 | 0.5 | 600 | 66.7 | 1.2 |
| Hyndburn | 2,200 | 300 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 300 | 15.8 | 1.0 | 500 | 29.4 | 1.9 |
| Lancaster | 3,800 | 400 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 200 | 5.6 | -0.2 | 600 | 18.8 | -0.5 |
| Pendle | 2,800 | 300 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 200 | 7.7 | 0.3 | 1,000 | 55.6 | 2.2 |
| Preston | 3,900 | 400 | 6.0 | 0.8 | -100 | -2.5 | -0.2 | 400 | 11.4 | 0.3 |
| Ribble Valley | 800 | 100 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 100 | 14.3 | 0.2 | 200 | 33.3 | 0.4 |
| Rossendale | 1,800 | 200 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 400 | 28.6 | 0.9 | 700 | 63.6 | 1.7 |
| South Ribble | 1,900 | 200 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 400 | 26.7 | 0.6 |
| West Lancashire | 2,400 | 300 | 4.4 | 0.6 | -200 | -7.7 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Wyre | 1,900 | 200 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 300 | 18.8 | 0.5 |
| Blackburn with Darwen | 4,100 | 400 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 900 | 28.1 | 1.2 |
| Blackpool | 4,000 | 400 | 6.5 | 0.6 | 100 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 900 | 29.0 | 1.6 |
| Notes NAR = not available/reliable, NYA = not yet available | ||||||||||
| (1) To get the limits of the 95% confidence interval in the unemployment rate, add/subtract the figure in this column to/from the figures in the Rate column. | ||||||||||
| (2) Please note that the Model Based Estimates of Unemployment have been revised since the release of the October 2006 to September 2007 data. Figures are being revised for previous dates on a rolling basis and therefore figures may not match with figures previously published on this website. | ||||||||||
| Source Office for National Statistics - Model Based Estimates of Unemployment for Small Areas | ||||||||||
Official Unemployment Statistics for Lancashire and Lancashire Sub-Regions
(Yearly Averages, Produced Quarterly)
January 2007 to December 2007
| Total Unemployment | Quarterly Change | Change since January 2004-December 2004 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number | ± | Rate | Confidence Interval ±(1) | Number | % | In Rate | Number | % | In Rate | |
| Lancashire County(2) | 30,000 | — | 5.1 | 1.0 | 3,500 | 13.2 | 0.5 | 5,200 | 21.0 | 0.6 |
| East Lancashire(3) | 18,800 | — | 7.6 | 1.4 | 6,300 | 50.4 | 2.5 | 8,100 | 75.7 | 3.2 |
| Lancashire West(4) | 19,200 | — | 4.2 | 0.8 | -3,000 | -13.5 | -0.7 | -1,500 | -7.2 | -0.6 |
| Lancashire NUTS-2(5) | 38,000 | — | 5.4 | 0.7 | 3,400 | 9.8 | 0.4 | 6,600 | 21.0 | 0.8 |
| North West | 189,000 | — | 5.6 | 0.3 | 10,900 | 6.1 | 0.3 | 40,900 | 27.6 | 1.0 |
| England | 1,351,500 | — | 5.2 | 0.1 | -38,600 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 199,800 | 17.3 | 0.5 |
| Great Britain | 1,555,000 | — | 5.2 | 0.1 | -46,000 | -2.9 | -0.2 | 202,300 | 15.0 | 0.5 |
| United Kingdom | 1,588,700 | — | 5.2 | 0.1 | -50,900 | -3.1 | -0.2 | 194,800 | 14.0 | 0.5 |
| Notes NAR = not available/reliable, NYA = not yet available | ||||||||||
| (1) To get the limits of the 95% confidence interval in the unemployment rate, add/subtract the figure in this column to/from the figures in the Rate column. | ||||||||||
| (2) The Lancashire figure is an amalgamation of the twelve Lancashire districts. | ||||||||||
| (3) The Lancashire NUTS-2 figure covers the broader Lancashire area and includes Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool Unitary Authorities. | ||||||||||
| (4) East Lancashire includes Blackburn with Darwen Unitary Authority, Burnley, Hyndburn, Pendle, Ribble Valley and Rossendale. | ||||||||||
| (5) Lancashire West includes Blackpool Unitary Authority, Chorley, Fylde, Lancaster, Preston, South Ribble, West Lancashire and Wyre. | ||||||||||
| Source Office for National Statistics - National On-line Manpower Information System (NOMIS) - Annual Population Survey /Labour Force Survey | ||||||||||
Important note on using the estimates to monitor changes over time
The APS (on which these estimates are based) is published quarterly, but with each publication including data for one year. The four publications per year cover the periods January to December; April to March of the following year; July to June of the following year; and October to September of the following year. Three quarters of the survey observations included in one publication will therefore be included in the following publication.
The model-based unemployment estimates (and the direct APS survey estimates) represent valid estimates for the period to which they refer but because, as explained above, estimates from consecutive quarters are based on common observations they are not independent, and should not be used for comparisons over time. Comparisons over time for say the latest annual estimate should only be made using estimates for the same period a year earlier, as the data for these two periods will not include any common observations.
Furthermore, the confidence interval which should be applied to a measure of change will be larger than that for the individual estimates. The calculation for this is given in the detailed User Guide The detailed user guide, general guidance and additional information on the model based estimates of unemployment can be obtained from the following webpage on the Office for National Statistics website.
Model-Based Unemployment Estimates Download - Time Series from 1996/97 (RANKED)
This page was compiled by Paul Ayre.
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