Population Change in Lancashire
Super Output Areas (2001-2006)
and Wards (2001-2006)

Introduction

The Office for National Statistics has released resident population estimates for both Middle and Lower Super Output Areas (MSOAs and LSOAs) for mid-2001 through to mid-2006. They have been produced by quinary age groups and gender and are consistent with previously published (revised August 2007) local authority mid-year estimates. The methodology used to produce these mid-year MSOA and LSOA estimates differ from the method used to produce the local authority mid-year estimates and in the light of their innovative nature are published as "Experimental Statistics". This means that they are still undergoing development and evaluation with a view to becoming a fully recognised National Statistic. Full data sets for all Super Output Areas (SOAs) in England and Wales are available from the Neighbourhood Statistics website. Data relating specifically to SOAs in Lancashire can be found in our Download Centre.

Lancashire Context

This particular article focuses simply on the numerical and percentage rates of change in the total estimated population between 2001 and 2006 in the Lancashire MSOAs and LSOAs separately. It does not include separate analysis of the changes in gender or age group but the complete data for both these components can be found in the above downloads. Comparative data for the Lancashire sub-region and its constituent districts can be found in the Mid-Year Population Estimates research monitor but for context and ease of reference the broad changes for these areas 2001-2006 are replicated in Table 1 below.

Population Change by Middle-Layer Super Output Areas (2001-2006)

There are 194 MSOAs in Lancashire with mid-2006 estimated population totals ranging from 12,600 in Overton & Lower Heysham in Lancaster district and 12,100 in the Clayton-le-Moors, Altham & Huncoat North area of Hyndburn to 4,800 in the Rose Hill East & Burnley Wood area of Burnley and 5,000 in the Swinden, Brun & Calder area of Burnley. The average population size of MSOA is under 7,500. Against a Lancashire sub-regional average population change rate between 2001-2006 of 2.3%, 125 or 64% of local MSOAs experienced an increase in population numbers over the period whilst 69 or 36% recorded population decreases. Table 2 details those MSOAs with the highest percentage rates of population gain between 2001 and 2006 and those with the greatest decreases. Figure 1 illustrates the geographical distribution of MSOA population changes across the whole of the Lancashire NUTS-2 area.

The dynamics of population change, particularly for small areas are complex and can be subject to a myriad of socio-economic and environmental factors. Short-term trends can be highly volatile in smaller areas and are not always indicative of longer-term patterns. The main components underlying population change generally are natural change – the balance between births and deaths – and migration flows. For most areas migration flows are usually the primary movers arising from a range of push and pull factors which can include such matters as the general state of the local economy and suitable job availability versus those elsewhere, life style changes such as the desire to retire to a favoured location following retirement, desires to trade-up in the housing market and to live in a perceived better environment and numerous other considerations. At the small area level most migration flows tend to be of short distance and are often dependent on local considerations such as the state of the local property market, new developments or demolition and even the availability of local services and schools, the level of local crime, a desire to be closer to relatives and other often intangible factors. Such movements can often be a powerful force for social change in local areas over a relatively short period of time.

The importance of local factors in population change are readily apparent in a number of Lancashire MSOAs. The largest increase, of more than a third was in the Fernhurst & Ewood South area on the outskirts of Blackburn near to Junction 4 of the M65. Its close proximity to the motorway has led to significant new housing (as well as industrial) development that has attracted relatively prosperous households. Similar impact can be seen in the Blackburn Higher Croft and Guide area, in the Gillibrand & Birkacre part of Chorley, the School Lane & Walton Summit area of South Ribble and in the Clayton-le-Moors, Altham & Huncoat North area of Hyndburn. Well above-average population growth has also taken place in the Whalley, Billington & Langho area of Ribble Valley (+29%) and the Lytham Moss area of Fylde (+15%) where the availability of suitable properties, environmental attractions and accessibility have been important considerations. Indeed, large tracts of rural Fylde, Lancaster, Ribble Valley, Wyre and West Lancashire clearly emerge from this analysis as favoured residential locations. However, some urban areas proper have also experienced above-par population gains. Notable in this respect is the Market Square area of Lancaster (+31%), reflecting the growing desire amongst some household groups for a central urban location, and the Cottam, Lea & Riversway area of Preston, reflecting a combination of new construction and regeneration. Some other parts of Preston such as Adelphi & St Paul's have also gained through a large growth of university student numbers over recent years.

At the other extreme of the population change range the Rose Hill East & Burnley Wood MSOA recorded a significant decrease of nearly 12% with a number of adjacent areas, including Rose Grove S. & Weavers' Triangle (-5%) and Daneshouse, Stoneyholme & Burnley Lane South (-5%) also ranking amongst those recording well above-average decreases. These are all areas known to rank poorly in terms of various measures of deprivation and household incomes and population decline is a reflection of both a much longer-term pattern of reducing employment opportunities in previously key staple industries and more recent housing renewal programmes. Elsewhere, most MSOAs experiencing some degree of population loss were also principally within urban areas. The most notable of these were Pot House & Marsh House Lane in Darwen; Whitefield & Walverden in Colne; Moorside & Digmoor, Ashurst & Stanley and Central Skelmersdale in West Lancashire; and Ingol West & Tanterton and Ingol East & Haslam Park in Preston. A clutch of rural MSOAs, particularly across parts of the southern half of the county also suffered from some population decreases possibly reflecting a combination of strict development constraints (green belts), high house prices and structural socio-economic changes resulting from their popularity with high income commuters.

Figure 1 Population Change by MSOA, 2001-2006 (%)

Source ONS - Population Estimates for Super Output Areas

Population Change by Lower-Layer Super Output Areas (2001-2006)

There are 940 LSOAs in Lancashire with estimated 2006 population totals that in the main range from about 1,000 to 3,100. The average size of LSOA is just over 1,500 residents. Exceptionally, in one instance in the case of one LSOA in the Ellel and Scotforth area of Lancaster the population total is very much higher. However, this position is somewhat anomalous, being attributable to the presence of a large student population at the University of Lancaster. Between 2001 and 2006 there was a fairly equal split (54/46% in the number of Lancashire LSOAs that experienced an increase or decrease in population numbers.

Table 3 details those LSOAs with the highest percentage rates of population gain over the period and those with the greatest decreases. Figure 2 illustrates the geographical distribution of LSOA population change across the whole of the Lancashire NUTS-2 area. It identifies in even greater detail some of the broader trends identified above. The dominant pattern is one of growth in many rural and suburban/dormitory areas partly offset by falling populations in many of the larger and older urban areas. However, the patchwork of changes also suggests more complexity at the local small area level. There are still significant numbers of rural areas, including areas of apparent good geographical accessibility, where population numbers are falling or fairly static at best. Equally, there are LSOAs within most urban areas, but most notably within Preston and Lancaster where new build and regeneration have apparently reversed previous population falls. It is likely to require additional years of data at the level of Super Output Areas before the full extent of some of these recent population changes can be assessed.

Figure 2 Population Change by LSOA, 2001-2006 (%)

Source ONS - Population Estimates for Super Output Areas

Population Change by Wards (2001-2006)

In addition to population estimates for Super Output Areas, National Statistics has also released new and revised estimates of population by wards. Like the SOA population estimates these ward figures are "experimental" in nature and have been produced by quinary age groups and gender and are consistent with previously published local authority mid-year estimates. The full data sets for England and Wales can be obtained from the National Statistics website whilst data relating specifically to wards in Lancashire can be found in our Data Download Centre.

Table 4 details the Lancashire wards with the highest percentage rates of population increase and decrease whilst Figure 3 illustrates the geographical distribution of ward population changes across the whole of the Lancashire NUTS-2 area.

Figure 3 Population Change by Census Wards, 2001-2006 (%)

Source ONS - Population Estimates for CAS Wards

Note on the Data

The mid-year estimated population figures used in this article are resident base. This means that the statistics relate to where people usually live. Students and school children studying away from home are counted as resident at their term-time address. Members of HM and US Armed Forces in England and Wales are included on a residential basis wherever possible. HM Forces stationed outside England and Wales are not included. The mid-year population estimates include the usually resident population which incorporates estimates of long-term international migrants – that is, someone changing their country of usual residence for a least a year. People who come to England and Wales for less than a year are referred to as short-term migrants and are not included.

For further details, please contact:
Peter Kivell
 EconInfo@lancashire.gov.uk