Lancashire's Population
Mid-2007
August 2008
Introduction
The following article uses mid-2007 population estimates downloaded from the Office for National Statistics website. The 2007 figures are available at the national level by single year of age and sex, and sub-nationally (e.g. local authorities) by five-year groupings by age and sex. This research monitor presents selected information for Lancashire authorities, whilst all the data sets for the Lancashire area are available by going to the Data Download Centre.
Definition of Resident Population
The estimated resident population of an area includes all people who usually live there, whatever their nationality. Members of HM and US Armed Forces in England and Wales are included on a residential basis wherever possible, but HM Forces stationed outside England and Wales are not included. Students are taken to be resident at their term time address.
Mid-year population estimates incorporate long-term international migrants: someone changing their country of usual residence for at least a year. People who come to the UK for less than a year are referred to as short-term migrants and are not included.
The National Context
The resident population for England and Wales was estimated to have reached over 54 million by mid-2007, an increase of 3.3 million or 6.6% since 1991, according to the latest estimates published by the Office for National Statistics. Over the past year, 343,200 or 0.6% was added to the total. For the North West region, the population decreased significantly between 1991 and 2001 with high levels of net outward migration. Since then, the overall population total for the region has been on the increase and grew by 0.2% between 2006 and 2007 to reach over 6.8 million.
The Lancashire Perspective
The resident population of the Lancashire NUTS-2 area stood at 1,451,500 in mid-2007. Taking into account population changes due to births, deaths and net migration, this represented a small increase of 1,800 (+0.1%) over the previous year.
| 1991 | 2001 | 2006 | 2007 | Change 2006-2007 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural | Net Migration | Total | % | |||||
| North Lancashire | 452,600 | 455,400 | 471,800 | 473,300 | -1,200 | 2,700 | 1,500 | 0.3 |
| Blackpool | 148,600 | 142,300 | 142,700 | 142,500 | -300 | 0 | -200 | -0.1 |
| Fylde | 71,900 | 73,300 | 75,700 | 76,400 | -400 | 1,200 | 800 | 1.1 |
| Lancaster | 129,600 | 134,000 | 143,000 | 143,500 | -100 | 600 | 500 | 0.3 |
| Wyre | 102,500 | 105,800 | 110,400 | 110,900 | -400 | 900 | 500 | 0.5 |
| Central Lancashire | 438,700 | 443,400 | 451,900 | 452,500 | 1,200 | -500 | 700 | 0.1 |
| Chorley | 97,000 | 100,600 | 103,700 | 104,100 | 300 | 100 | 400 | 0.4 |
| Preston | 130,000 | 130,400 | 132,000 | 131,900 | 600 | -700 | -100 | -0.1 |
| South Ribble | 102,600 | 103,900 | 106,400 | 106,700 | 200 | 100 | 300 | 0.3 |
| West Lancashire | 109,100 | 108,500 | 109,800 | 109,800 | 100 | 0 | 100 | 0.1 |
| Lancashire West | 891,300 | 898,800 | 923,700 | 925,800 | 0 | 2,200 | 2,200 | 0.2 |
| East Lancashire | 511,100 | 518,500 | 526,000 | 525,700 | 1,900 | -2,500 | -400 | -0.1 |
| Blackburn with Darwen | 137,400 | 138,500 | 141,200 | 140,900 | 1,000 | -1,400 | -400 | -0.3 |
| Burnley | 92,000 | 89,500 | 88,000 | 87,500 | 200 | -700 | -500 | -0.6 |
| Hyndburn | 78,600 | 81,500 | 82,200 | 82,000 | 300 | -500 | -200 | -0.2 |
| Pendle | 85,500 | 89,300 | 90,100 | 90,000 | 300 | -500 | -100 | -0.1 |
| Ribble Valley | 51,800 | 54,100 | 57,800 | 58,300 | -100 | 500 | 500 | 0.9 |
| Rossendale | 65,800 | 65,600 | 66,700 | 67,000 | 200 | 100 | 300 | 0.4 |
| Lancashire County | 1,116,400 | 1,136,500 | 1,165,700 | 1,168,100 | 1,300 | 1,100 | 2,400 | 0.2 |
| Lancashire NUTS-2 | 1,402,400 | 1,417,300 | 1,449,600 | 1,451,500 | 2,000 | -300 | 1,800 | 0.1 |
| North West | 6,843,000 | 6,773,000 | 6,853,200 | 6,864,300 | 14,000 | -2,900 | 11,100 | 0.2 |
| England and Wales | 50,748,000 | 52,360,000 | 53,728,800 | 54,072,000 | 176,700 | 166,400 | 343,200 | 0.6 |
| Notes Some numbers do not sum exactly due to rounding. | ||||||||
| Source ONS - Mid-Year Population Estimates | ||||||||
Natural change – the balance between births and deaths – and net migration are the two components that impact on the pattern of population change. The district figures reveal that the two components can often be exerting opposing effects in the same area. A number of areas that are attractive to inward migrants also record declining natural change figures. In comparison, large urban districts such as Blackburn with Darwen register significant natural change increases but also large negative net migration flows.
North Lancashire
All four North Lancashire districts – Blackpool, Fylde, Lancaster and Wyre – recorded natural population decreases over the past year that together amounted to around 1,200 persons. In Blackpool there was a static picture for net inward migration, but the other three authorities recorded significant increases. Fylde recorded a substantial 1,200 yearly increase in net migration, whilst the increase of 900 in Wyre was the second highest net migration rise recorded in the 14 Lancashire authorities.
In total, the population of the North Lancashire area increased by 0.3% over the past year as the negative effects from natural changes only partly cancelled out the large numbers of net migrants to the area.
Central Lancashire
Central Lancashire's population continues to grow, with the increase from natural effects being greater than the decline as a result of net migration, but the yearly growth rate of just 0.1% was rather subdued. The -700 decrease in net migration in Preston is the most striking result in the Central Lancashire area and is the major factor behind the low overall growth rate in the area.
East Lancashire
East Lancashire has a long history of suffering net losses of population through migration flows but over the past few years the overall population total in the area has in general increased as a result of strong positive natural changes. Between 2006 and 2007, there was however a small -0.1% decrease as a result of the positive natural change figure of 1,900 being more than offset by the large net migration decline of -2,500.
Differences at the district level in East Lancashire are quite dramatic. The prosperous and mainly rural Ribble Valley continues to attract migrants and the district recorded a 0.9% increase in population – the highest yearly percentage increase amongst the 14 Lancashire authorities. In contrast, the population of Burnley continues to fall with the latest figures showing a yearly reduction of -0.6%. Blackburn with Darwen, Hyndburn and Pendle also recorded yearly decreases.
Resident Population by Age Group
Table 2 presents sub-regional and district population estimates for mid-2007, split by five broad age groupings.
In comparison with the England and Wales average, the Lancashire NUTS-2 area reveals a bias towards higher proportions of people in the two older age groups 45+, and also higher proportions in the two youngest age groups. It is in the 25-44 working age group that the county has a noticeably smaller proportion than the England and Wales average.
At the district level, the figures reveal that in the youngest age group (0-14 years), two East Lancashire authorities – Blackburn with Darwen (22.7%) and Hyndburn (20.1%) – had more than one-in-five of their residents in this category, a characteristic presumably reflecting above par birth rates. In comparison, the percentage of 0-14 year-olds was only 14.5% in Fylde and 15.8% for North Lancashire as a whole.
At the other end of the age spectrum, both Fylde (22.8%) and Wyre District (22.8%) had the joint highest rates for the oldest 65+ age-group. These proportions were well in excess of the Lancashire NUTS-2 (16.8 %) and national (16.1%) averages, and reflect the attraction of these districts to retired inward migrants. Blackburn with Darwen (12.7%) and Preston (14.3%) by comparison had the lowest proportions of residents within the oldest age group.
Preston (17.1%), together with Lancaster (18.2%), had high proportions of young people aged 15-24 years, reflecting the fact that these two districts contain sizeable universities.
| Percentage in Age Band: | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-14 | 15-24 | 25-44 | 45-64 | 65+ | ||
| North Lancashire | 15.8 | 13.9 | 24.4 | 26.0 | 19.9 | 473,300 |
| Blackpool | 17.0 | 12.8 | 25.1 | 26.1 | 18.9 | 142,500 |
| Fylde | 14.5 | 10.7 | 23.6 | 28.3 | 22.8 | 76,400 |
| Lancaster | 15.4 | 18.2 | 25.7 | 23.7 | 17.0 | 143,500 |
| Wyre | 15.5 | 12.0 | 22.4 | 27.2 | 22.8 | 110,900 |
| Central Lancashire | 17.5 | 13.8 | 26.7 | 26.2 | 15.9 | 452,500 |
| Chorley | 17.2 | 11.9 | 27.6 | 28.0 | 15.5 | 104,100 |
| Preston | 18.0 | 17.1 | 27.9 | 22.7 | 14.3 | 131,900 |
| South Ribble | 17.0 | 12.5 | 26.7 | 27.1 | 16.7 | 106,700 |
| West Lancashire | 17.7 | 12.8 | 24.2 | 27.8 | 17.5 | 109,800 |
| Lancashire West | 16.6 | 13.8 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 17.9 | 925,800 |
| East Lancashire | 20.0 | 13.7 | 26.3 | 25.1 | 14.9 | 525,700 |
| Blackburn with Darwen | 22.7 | 14.6 | 27.5 | 22.4 | 12.7 | 140,900 |
| Burnley | 19.0 | 14.4 | 25.7 | 25.4 | 15.7 | 87,500 |
| Hyndburn | 20.1 | 13.3 | 26.6 | 24.8 | 15.4 | 82,000 |
| Pendle | 19.1 | 13.9 | 25.7 | 25.8 | 15.6 | 90,000 |
| Ribble Valley | 17.2 | 11.8 | 24.4 | 28.8 | 17.8 | 58,300 |
| Rossendale | 18.8 | 12.7 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 14.5 | 67,000 |
| Lancashire County | 17.4 | 13.8 | 25.7 | 26.1 | 17.1 | 1,168,100 |
| Lancashire NUTS-2 | 17.8 | 13.8 | 25.8 | 25.7 | 16.8 | 1,451,500 |
| North West | 17.7 | 14.0 | 26.8 | 25.3 | 16.2 | 6,864,300 |
| England and Wales | 17.6 | 13.4 | 28.1 | 24.9 | 16.1 | 54,072,000 |
| Note Percentages may not sum exactly due to rounding. | ||||||
| Source ONS - Mid-Year Population Estimates | ||||||
For further details, or if you have any ideas for improving the content of this article, please contact:
Bryan Moulding
Tel 01772 534172
Email Bryan.Moulding@lancashire.gov.uk