Lancashire Household Projections
2004-2029

Introduction

In March 2007 the Department of Communities & Local Government (DCLG) published 2004-based projections of households in England and Wales and constituent regions to 2029 with some additional detail at the sub-regional level (i.e. for local authorities and districts). These projections have been up-dated (February 2008) to take account of revisions to the ONS 2004 based population projections. The revised population projections used an improved methodology for estimating the distribution of migrants around the country. This has tended to reduce the projected rate of population growth in London and increased the projected rate in other regions. The overall projections for England are not affected by these revisions and DCLG continue to project an annual rate of household growth in England from 2004 to 2026 of 223,000.

The exercise has been based on up-dated projections of household formation taking account of the 2001 Census of Population and is linked to the Government Actuary Department's 2004-based population projections for England and the Office for National Statistics' revised 2004-based sub-national population projections.

The household projections are produced by projecting household formation rates and applying these to the population projections. These projections are not an assessment of housing need, nor do they take account of future policies or developments. They are simply an indication of the likely increase in households given the continuation of recent demographic trends.

Full data on these household projections for England are available direct from the DCLG website. Lancashire data may be obtained from the Lancashire Profile Data Download Centre.

National and Regional Results

Key results of the household projections for England are given in Table 1 and show:

• A projected increase in households in England over the 25-year period from 2004 to 2029 of 5.4m or more than a quarter to reach 26.5m. This is equivalent to an average annual growth of around 223,000. (This compares with anticipated figures of 209,000 per annum and 153,000 per annum in the previous 2003 and 1996 based projections respectively)
• One-person households account for about160,000 of the 223,000 annual average growth. Most of these one-person households are in the older age groups: over a third are in the age groups over 65 years.
• The share of one person households, at 31% in 2004 is projected to rise to 39% of all households by 2029.
• Some 59% of the additional households per year is attributable to the adult population growth; a fifth is due to changing age distribution; and 18% is due to increasing household formation.
• The decrease in household size from 2.34 in 2004 to 2.09 by 2029 is due largely to the projected increase in the number of one-person households.
• The number of married couple households is projected to fall over the 25 years by more than 7%. This is more than offset by an increase in co-habiting couple households but the share of married/cohabiting households is still projected to fall from about 55% of all households in 2004 to 47% in 2029.
• The numbers of lone parent households and 'other multi-person households' are projected to increase approximately in line with overall household growth.

All regions of England are expected to record increasing numbers of households over the projection period 2004-2029, though about 57% of the total projected household growth is within the East, London, South East and the South West. The North West has projected growth over the period of 21% (+617,000 households), a rate well below the England average and the second lowest after the North East. This is largely attributable to a slower pace of anticipated growth in its private household population rather than a lower household formation rate (Table 2).

Compared with the previous 2003-based household projections, the new 2004-based ones imply a slightly higher annual average growth, particularly in the North East, North West and Yorkshire & the Humber; a more moderate increase in the Midlands; and an increase in London offset by lower growth in the East and South West. These changes reflect the 2004 based ONS sub-national population projections that include improvements to the method that distributes international migration across England.

Within the North West there are some differences in projected household growth rates across the NUTS-2 sub-regions. Only Lancashire is expected to exceed the England average rate of growth 2004-29 (Table 3). This sub-region, with a projected household increase of over 26% is expected to have the second largest numerical increase over the period and to account for over a quarter of the overall net regional household increase. Household growth in Merseyside is projected at just 17%.

Lancashire Results

Parbold, West Lancashire district

The sub-regional household projections such as those presented in Table 4 for Lancashire and its constituent areas are less robust than those at regional level, particularly for those areas with relatively small numbers of households. This should be taken into account in using the figures. Policy or development constraints could, for example, quickly have a marked impact on real trends so that the projections are best viewed simply as one possible scenario.

At face value, given recent demographic and household formation trends, household numbers in Lancashire NUTS-2 are projected to grow from an estimated 604,000 in 2004 to 763,000 by 2029, a net increase of 159,000 or over 26%. Household numbers in Lancashire County would grow at a similar pace, creating an additional 131,000. These represent annual average rate of growth of 6,600 in the sub-region and 5,4900 in the County respectively. The most rapid growth in household numbers are projected to occur in the districts of Fylde, Lancaster, Ribble Valley and Wyre. These areas have all experienced recent growth linked to strong net inward migration flows and/or popularity as dormitory locations. Other relatively high household growth areas like Chorley and South Ribble have also experienced a period of strong jobs growth. Projected household growth over much of urban East Lancashire is much more constrained, falling to an expected increase of just 8% in Burnley.