Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Lancashire
2006

Source Canadian Space Agency

Introduction

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the principal greenhouse gas believed to be contributing to global warming, accounting for about 85% of total UK greenhouse gas emissions. The vast majority of man-made CO₂ emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels in power generation and in the transport, domestic and industrial sectors. The level of emissions depends on the fuel mix and the fuel consumption data. Estimates of national man-made CO₂ emissions have been available for several years from the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) in order to monitor progress against domestic and international targets such as the Kyoto Protocol. More recently increasing emphasis has been placed on the role of regional and local government in contributing to energy efficiency improvements and in mitigating climate change, and hence reductions in CO₂ emissions. This in turn has called for greater information at regional and local levels.

In an attempt to meet this need, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) first commissioned research from AEA Energy and Environment and published trail statistics of carbon dioxide emissions for all UK local authorities and regions for 2003 through to 2005. These were "experimental statistics. Up-dated and rather more robust estimates have again been published by DEFRA for 2006 whilst figures for 2005 have also been revised so that they are directly comparable to the new 2006 figures. Both the 2005 and 2006 estimates are classified as full "National Statistics" and provide the baseline against which future estimates may be compared. A short analysis of the Lancashire districts' and sub-regional data for 2006 and a comparison with 2005 is given below. The complete datasets for the whole of the UK may be downloaded directly from the DEFRA website. Further information on the quality and comparability of these estimates is given at the end of this article.

Lancashire Results

Total CO₂ emissions in the Lancashire sub-region in 2006 were estimated at 12.2 million tonnes (Table 1). This represented just over a fifth of the North West total of 59.5 million tonnes or 2.3% of the UK total (excluding unallocated emissions). The Lancashire total was well below that of Greater Manchester and less than Cheshire but above that of Cumbria and Merseyside. Overall, 43% of Lancashire emissions are attributable to industrial, commercial and public sector sources, 30% to the domestic sector, 25% to road transport and a small residual of less than 2% to land use, land use change and forestry. Relative to the UK, Lancashire has slightly lower shares of its CO₂ emissions from both industrial and commercial and road transport sources but fractionally more from the domestic sector. Net emissions from land use changes in Lancashire at just 234kt are tiny by comparison but the UK as a whole actually enjoys a small net positive balance from this source with a net removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere.

Expressed in terms of per capita or "per resident" in order to make allowance for the different size of areas, total CO₂ emissions in the Lancashire sub-region, at 8.4 tonnes per annum were marginally lower than the UK average (8.8 tonnes), though that for Lancashire County (8.7 tonnes) was more or less on a par with the UK. Effectively, each person in Lancashire and the UK at large was producing CO₂ to the equivalent of more than the weight of one African Bull elephant each year. However, in considering such per capita ratios it should be noted that while emissions per resident may be a useful measure for domestic emissions, emissions from industry and road transport are driven by many factors other than the size of the resident population and these should be interpreted with caution.

The level of sector detail in the emissions data is of necessity severely constrained by the quality of hard statistics available. However, some further detail, mostly in terms of fuel types, is shown in Table 2 to provide additional insight into how the estimates are constructed. Lancashire/UK differences tend, in the main, to be quite small. Perhaps the main points of difference are in the use of gas as a fuel which is much more pronounced locally than in the UK in both the industrial and domestic sectors; a higher proportion of both petrol and diesel use on motorways with corresponding lower shares on other major and minor roads; a lower use of oil and solid fuel for domestic heating and a greater use of both wastes and biofuels and non-fuels in industry and commerce.

At the geographically smaller local authority level, CO₂ emissions can exhibit wide variation due to differences in population numbers, geography and most especially the economy, with differing amounts of industrial and commercial activity being of particular importance (Figures 1 and 2). Across Lancashire total CO₂ emissions range from a low of 585kt in Burnley, with similar amounts in neighbouring Hyndburn, Pendle and Rossendale to nearly double these sums in West Lancashire, Blackburn and a high of 1,207kt in Ribble Valley. Viewed in terms of CO₂ per head rates, a slightly different pattern is evident with per capita emissions ranging from a low of just 5.7 tonnes in Blackpool to 10.2 tonnes in West Lancashire and an exceptional 20.9 tonnes in Ribble Valley.

Accounting for about 43% of Lancashire's total carbon dioxide emissions (against 46% in the UK) the local industrial and commercial sector produces the equivalent of 3.6 tonnes per head, slightly lower than the 4.0 tonnes in the UK. However, it is important to recognise that the presence of certain high-energy using industries like refineries, metals production, glass and other non-metallic mineral sectors, which are concentrated in a few areas, can have a very large local impact. This impact can be such that across the UK for most local authorities the contribution of industrial and commercial emissions is lower than the overall average suggests.

Figure 1 Carbon Dioxide Total Emissions by Local Authority and Sector, 2006

Source DEFRA: Emissions of Carbon Dioxide for Local Authority Areas

Within Lancashire the share of emissions attributable to industry and commerce is greatest in those districts where energy-intensive industrial activities have a disproportionate representation. These include Rossendale, West Lancashire and Blackburn but most especially Ribble Valley where per capita emissions for the sector rise to nearly 16 tonnes (against a Lancashire sector average of under 4 tonnes) and accounts for three-quarters of the district's CO₂ emissions. A single major energy user would appear to be largely responsible for this outturn. At the other extreme, industrial and commercial emissions in Blackpool are estimated at around 2.2 tonnes per capita and in Chorley at just 2.9 tonnes per capita. In the case of Chorley they make up less than a quarter of the district's emissions.

Figure 2 Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Lancashire and Districts: Sector Shares, 2006

Source DEFRA: Emissions of Carbon Dioxide for Local Authority Areas

Per capita CO₂ emissions vary least between areas within the domestic sector (defined as emissions from energy consumption by private individuals in and around the home but not activities by private individuals elsewhere, such as personal travel) and are dominated by gas and electricity consumption for which real local data is now available. Nationally about 47% of domestic end user emissions come from gas use, 43% are due to electricity consumption and 10% are from other fuels (e.g. oil, solid fuel, etc.). In Lancashire the proportions are 54%, 41% and 5% respectively. Across Lancashire, total domestic carbon dioxide emissions range from a high of 369kt or 10% of the sub-regional total in Blackpool to just 161kt in Ribble Valley (4.4%).

Rather different distributions are apparent when measured on a per head basis. Typically, across the UK in about a half of local authorities, average domestic emissions are between 2.5 and 3.0 tonnes of CO₂ per person per year. This can be influenced by the fuel types used; the type and condition of the housing stock (including its insulation); the average temperature (and urban areas can be warmer and therefore easier to heat than rural areas); average household size, type of household; and income and preferences of its occupiers. Across Lancashire nine of the 14 Lancashire districts lie within the above "typical" national range of per capita domestic emissions (Figure 3). All of these districts except for Blackpool have emissions slightly above the UK average with Rossendale (at 2.9 tonnes per head having the highest rate. All other districts lie slightly below the norm with per capita emissions being lowest in Lancaster (2.3 tonnes) and Preston (2.4 tonnes).

Figure 3 Total and per Capita Domestic Sector Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2006

Source DEFRA: Emissions of Carbon Dioxide for Local Authority Areas

Overall, within the domestic sector alone, the average person in Lancashire was contributing about 2.5 tonnes of CO₂ into the atmosphere through the use of fossil fuel energy. Put more graphically, this is the equivalent to each person having a CO₂ footprint of 33 times his or her own body weight each year, and this does not include emissions due to personal travel.

Road transport emissions include freight and passenger transport, both private and for business purposes. On the end user basis, road transport emissions also include a share of emissions from oil refineries. In Lancashire the sector accounts for 25% of all CO₂ emissions, similar to that in the UK. Nearly all of this derives from petrol (47%) and diesel (52%) fuels with just a small residual (0.5%) from other fuels. Overall, road transport emissions per head in the sub-region stood at 2.1 tonnes – just below the UK average of 2.2 tonnes. The estimates of road transport CO₂ are made on the basis of the distribution of traffic, therefore some of the emissions within an authority represent through traffic, or part of trips into or out of the area whether by residents or non-residents. In some authorities this can be particularly significant and may, for example, provide part of the explanation for above-average per capita road transport emissions in Chorley (4.2 tonnes and South Ribble (2.8 tonnes) at the heart of the Lancashire motorway network. Road transport emissions fall to just 0.9 tonne per head in Blackpool and 1.4 tonnes per head in Pendle.

Land use, land use change and forestry are the final sector considered in the CO₂ estimates. This is very much a minor or residual category. Because it can act as a sink, removing carbon from the atmosphere, as well as a source of carbon emissions, the measure takes account of both CO₂ emissions and removals. Within Lancashire the sector is responsible for 343kt of emissions balanced by removals of 110kt resulting in a net emission of just 233kt or 1.9% of the total. This share rises to 3.6% in Fylde, 5.4% in Wyre and 8.8% in West Lancashire but elsewhere is negligible. Per head of population emissions from this category in Lancashire amount to just 0.16 tonne per head. Nationally CO₂ land use removals exceed emissions.

Change in Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2005-2006

Just two years of comparable data are available from the DEFRA Local Authority data sets to measure changes in carbon dioxide emissions – 2005 and 2006. A period of such short duration cannot provide any meaningful trend but at face value, across the UK estimated total emissions remained broadly the same, falling from 532.4m tonnes to 531.7m tonnes – a drop of just 638,000 tonnes or -0.1%. On a per head basis there was a fall of 0.1 tonnes or -0.6% (Table 3).

Across the Lancashire sub-region CO₂ emissions over the course of the year fell by 446,000 tonnes or 3.5%, or on a per capita basis, by 0.4 tonnes or -3.7%. Eight of Lancashire's districts experienced increases in total emissions, most notably in Wyre which recorded a 50kt or 6.1% increase followed by Chorley (+3.3%) and South Ribble (+3.0%). However, these were more than outweighed by a substantial fall in Lancaster of 122kt (-10.8%) but most especially by a drop in Ribble Valley of no less than 425kt or 26.0%. The latter was the largest decrease of any local authority in the United Kingdom and was attributable almost wholly to a fall in industrial and commercial emissions. Indeed, change (up or down) in industrial and commercial emissions was the main factor driving most of the more dramatic changes at district authority level. With the exception of a small net increase in Chorley, road transport carbon dioxide emissions were largely on a downward path in all districts over the course of the year whilst domestic emissions were rising.

Addendum

A further perspective on carbon dioxide emissions in Lancashire for 2005 is provided from data contained in the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. The NAEI provides much of the information that underlies the DEFRA estimates outlined above and in its original form details direct CO₂ emissions in Lancashire on the basis of 1x1km squares and divided into broad sectors of activity. It also specifically identifies CO₂ emissions from large individual sources or "points" additional to the area source emissions. These direct estimates for Lancashire are much lower than those published by DEFRA. This is because the DEFRA figures are "end-user statistics", allocating CO₂ emissions from power stations, refineries, etc to where the energy is actually consumed by householders and businesses rather than where the stations are located. Most electricity generation in Lancashire is from the two British Energy Generation owned AGR plants at Heysham that have a relatively low carbon footprint; Lancashire sources of fossil-fuel generated energy are relatively small both in number and size. Whilst a 1km resolution CO₂ map is not yet available on an end-user base, it is understood that this development is under consideration.

Figure 4 shows total direct carbon dioxide emissions in Lancashire from all sources by 1x1km squares together with significant point sources not included with the area estimates. These point sources within Lancashire are given in Table 3.

Figure 4 Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Lancashire by Source, 2005

Source National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory

Quality of the Data

The objective of the DEFRA exercise has been to produce the most reliable and consistent possible breakdown of national CO₂ estimates across the country. This is achieved by using nationally available datasets from the NAEI combined with local energy consumption data from the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR). As with the previous exercises, where possible the latest estimates are based on "real" local data such as electricity and gas consumption and emissions from sites where pollution is regulated. Thus, for example, emissions from power stations (about 30% of total UK emissions) or from refineries are allocated according to where the energy is actually consumed by householders and businesses rather than where the source of energy is located. Similarly, emissions from the production of goods are assigned to where the production takes place and as with the national inventories, emissions from the production of goods that are exported are included but emissions from the production of goods that are imported are excluded. These estimates are described as "end user" statistics. The remaining emissions are assigned to local areas on the basis of other local information such as traffic, population, employment and data on household fuel types. All emissions included in the national inventory are covered, except domestic aviation, shipping, the offshore oil industry and military transport, for which there is no obvious basis for allocations to local areas.

The 2006 and revised 2005 CO₂ local authority estimates are held to be an improvement on the previous sets and are now classified as full National Statistics having met more rigorous data quality requirements. In the words of DEFRA, "the dataset is sufficiently robust to set a baseline against which to monitor action on climate change at a local level". Having said this, the estimates are not perfect, and according to DEFRA: "they stretch the information available to the limit in order to provide estimates for each authority". It is intended that estimates will continue to be produced annually in future years. It is likely that the 2007 dataset, to be published in autumn 2009, may include further methodological improvements increasing the level of accuracy in certain sectors. However, consistency will be maintained so that data from the 2005 estimates onwards are directly comparable and a time series is established.

The purpose of the estimates, as well as providing nationally consistent CO₂ emissions, is to provide a starting point for further thoughts on quantifying emissions at a local and regional level, to stimulate discussions regarding local carbon accounting and to generally raise awareness of greenhouse gas emissions as an important issue.

Useful Web Sites

National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) Estimates of emissions to the atmosphere from UK sources such as cars, trucks, power stations and industrial plant.

Carbon Trust A government-funded independent company helping business and the public sector to cut carbon emissions and supports the development of low carbon technologies. Provides companies and councils with technical and change management support and guidance to help them realise carbon emission savings.

Emissions Monitoring Group of the South East Climate Change Partnership (SECCP) SECCP have developed a simple emissions monitoring tool designed to help estimate carbon emissions from both LA activities and for the wider LA area. The tool has been developed in consultation with Defra, DTI and Netcen and is freely available. It has also been adopted by the Nottingham Declaration.

Nottingham Declaration Action Pack A resource to support local authorities in addressing the challenge that climate change presents.

Department of Trade and Industry The DTI's Energy Group provides a wide range of energy statistics in the form of indicators and sub-national energy statistics down to local authority level.

Energy Saving Trust A non-profit organisation funded by the government and the private sector aiming to achieve the sustainable use of energy and to cut carbon dioxide emissions.

Centre for Sustainable Energy A national charity company seeking to advance sustainable energy policy and practice.

North West Regional Assembly On 9 November 2006, a partnership led by the North West Regional Assembly, Northwest Regional Development Agency (NWDA), the Environment Agency (EA) and Government Office for the North West (GONW) launched a Climate Change Action Plan for the North West 2007-09. The Action Plan aims to stimulate and measure the progress of the region towards a low carbon economy, preparing it for the challenges of a changing climate and future energy demands, whilst protecting and enhancing the region's quality of life and rich environment.

Lancashire Climate Change Partnership has produced a draft Lancashire Climate Change Strategy and an Annual Action Plan setting out a framework for action on issues most effectively dealt with at sub-regional scale. The draft strategy provides a vision for the year 2020 together with a range of objectives for the next five years. A 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 is proposed.