The State of Lancashire Report
External Threats

• The Opportunities section stresses the enormous scale of some of the construction projects in London and highlights the need for the county to try and take advantage of these developments via improved links to the capital. On the other hand, major infrastructure projects such as Crossrail and the 2012 Olympics will absorb significant infrastructure, public sector and in particular lottery funding resources that could have been used in the north of England.

• The North West of England as a whole remains amongst the less prosperous regions of the UK. In 2005, GVA per head was just 88% of the UK average. Between 1995 and 2005, the average growth rate in the North West of 2.1% was well below the UK average, as indeed it has been for several decades.

• Lancashire should steadily become a more prosperous area in which both to live and work but this may not be sufficient in a society in which poverty and deprivation is entirely relative. In 2005 Lancashire had a Gross Value Added per head figure equivalent to just 82% of the UK average. Twenty years before, this ratio was closer to 95%. Thus, although Lancashire has been getting more prosperous, it has been doing so at a much slower pace than the nation at large. If it is desirable to try and raise the local growth rate to match the national average (never mind closing the existing "gap"), where does Lancashire have a competitive advantage to enable this to be achieved when other areas of the country will be growing their local economies at the same time?

• The key driver of the Lancashire economy is, and will continue to be, the private sector and the market itself, which as far as much industry and even some services are concerned, is increasingly becoming global in scope and sometimes beyond even the direct control of individual governments. Many key Lancashire companies operate in this global market and whilst they may be physically located in the sub-region, and regardless of any sense of affinity or loyalty they may have towards the county, when considering new investment, decisions are driven by costs and technology and not by location.

• The investment needed for long-term productivity growth will continue to be dominated by the private sector and dwarf whatever resources public agencies can bring towards improving the economy of Lancashire. For example, manufacturing investment in Lancashire represents only a relatively small part of the total investment that takes place in the sub-region but typically, even the variation in such expenditure between one year and another is usually greater than the sums accruing from the allocation of EU Structural Funds and UK Government expenditure on regional assistance to industry.

• A "job deficit" area suffering a daily net outflow of commuters to other parts of the UK (principally to work centres in Greater Manchester and Merseyside) in excess of 21,000.

• Global competition, higher energy costs and potentially reduced use of local suppliers through increased use by many companies of off-shore out-sourcing" and "offsetting". Probability of further reductions in manufacturing employment opportunities. Economic gains from such processes will not necessarily accrue to Lancashire.

• The private research firm CACI ranks retail areas in the UK by their financial importance. For 2008, London's West End was in pole position with an estimated expenditure figure of £4,45bn. Manchester was ranked in third place (£2,130bn) and Liverpool seventh (£1,300bn), whilst the Trafford Centre was in 17th position (£980m). The summary results included Preston, Blackpool and Chorley, with figures of £540 m, £320m and £100m respectively. Preston was ranked in 44th position (down from 38th in 2007) making it the fifth largest shopping area by value in the North West (Chester is the other centre in the region ahead of Preston). Future regional competitive pressure on medium-sized shopping centres in Lancashire will be intense. For example, the Paradise Street Project in Liverpool opened in May 2008, and the £90 million Barton Square extension to the Trafford Centre provides some very stiff competition. The Middlebrook Retail Park is just outside the county, and has grown to become a well established shopping and leisure destination. The continued growth of Internet shopping will also impact on the retail landscape in the county. The extension to the Hounds Hill Shopping Centre has provided a major boost to the retail landscape in central Blackpool, whilst there are various projects in the pipeline to improve the retail offering in other Lancashire towns.

• Compared with a previous era when Britain looked to the west and the Commonwealth, Lancashire now has a peripheral geographical location with respect to the European Union, potentially putting the area at an economic disadvantage.

• European Union eastward expansion and reviews of Common Agriculture funding levels and business support entitlements will have adverse effects on future levels of assistance to Lancashire.

• EU Objective 1 funding for Merseyside offers more generous business support funding than anything available in Lancashire.

• Average income levels can be noticeably higher than median results as a result of the influence of relatively small numbers of high earners, and can offer a somewhat distorted viewpoint of what would be a typical personal income. Global economic pressures may exacerbate wage-level differentials over years to come.

• Inadequate east-west road and rail links, including Trans-Pennine links to the Humber and North East ports, which have the important links to mainland Europe and beyond. These East Coast Ports generate a level of commercial activity that is far in excess of anything that can be achieved by the three Lancashire Ports with their limited range of services.

• Without additional intervention there is likely to be a significant increase in the costs of congestion for business and individuals both within urban areas and across the strategic network. Increased journey costs would impose a challenge to economic transformation, constrain the labour market, worsen public transport accessibility and mode shares, pose increased problems for lower income groups and potentially impact on willingness to travel.

• Improvements to transportation networks result in a two-way flow of people and goods that have positive and negative economic and environmental affects that are complex to accurately quantify. Lancashire firms could find their local markets open to new competition pressures, sometimes from larger external businesses that may find it becomes easier to service Lancashire markets from afar. Lancashire residents also have easy access to shopping and leisure facilities outside the County e.g., the Trafford Centre. Transportation improvements have identifiable advantages, but can also lead to leakages of wealth from the County that go unnoticed.

• Within the County, the M65 extension between the south of Preston and the west of Blackburn opened in 1997. There is no evidence that this process unlocked significant economic growth in East Lancashire. District changes in employee numbers since that date emphasise the continuing growth of employment in the central Lancashire authorities and a rather subdued picture in the East Lancashire area. The motorway extension improved access to East Lancashire but also made the core central Lancashire area around the intersection of the M6, 61 and 65 motorways more desirable as a business location to service a wider accessible catchment area.

• Lancashire's important agricultural base and farm incomes are under pressure from changes in EU agricultural support policies, market circumstances, shifting consumer requirements and environmental concerns. There is a demand for an abundance of cheap food but at the same time farmers are expected to take account of the environment and look after rural landscapes, the welfare of farmyard animals and the health of consumers. Increasingly, farmers are supposed to respond to market forces, yet find themselves so insulated in some areas such as through European support policies and so marginalised in others that they can scarcely manoeuvre. Forecasts for the industry's future prospects are highly uncertain, largely because of the many unique imponderables it faces. In particular, underlying trends are heavily shaped by exchange rates and world commodity prices that are themselves highly uncertain to forecast. Moreover, ad hoc events such as weather conditions or disease outbreaks can push incomes well above or below underlying trends in individual years.

• Increased personal mobility and advances in telecommunications technology have made all rural areas relatively accessible to people with their own transportation.. These trends, in combination with an enhanced perception of rural life, projected population increases and the pressure on farming incomes are placing increasing pressures upon the Lancashire countryside to accommodate built development.

• The local employment market for highly qualified people appears limited. Better employment opportunities for skilled and highly qualified staff can often be found outside the County.

• Lone parent rates have been increasing for a number of years and this trend is likely to continue. The additional pressure placed on just one parent (in most cases the mother) in raising one or more children impacts on the need for child care, welfare payments, flexible working arrangements, youth facilities and the general quality of life of those concerned.

• Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) have been reconfigured in line with government policy. In the local area there is the NHS North Lancashire, NHS Central Lancashire and the East Lancashire PCT. This means that there are three PCTs that together form the same boundary as the Lancashire County Council area. The addition of the Blackburn with Darwen PCT and Blackpool PCT means that there are five PCTs to cover the broader Lancashire NUTS-2 area. Joint working and the setting of shared objectives and targets with other public sector agencies is easier given the new PCT structures. Improvements may however have been maximised had a single PCT coterminous with county council boundaries been created rather than the present three. The county council is committed to engaging constructively with the PCTs to work towards common priorities for health and well-being and secure appropriate services for vulnerable people across the county. In some cases this involves working on a sub-regional basis with Blackpool and Blackburn with Darwen PCTs. The development of Multi-Area Agreements and a Joint Strategic Needs Assessment from 2008 has encouraged greater cooperation in the Lancashire County Council area.

• High house prices and challenging economic conditions are leading to increasing numbers of Mortgage Possessions Proceedings in the County Courts in Lancashire and across the country. There is in contrast, the problem of housing market stagnation in a number of central urban areas in East Lancashire where old terraced properties (of which some are in poor condition) depress local property prices. Areas with significant proportions of terraced housing including Burnley, Pendle and Hyndburn have some of the highest vacant property rates in England.

• Crime rates vary considerably within individual districts, being closely associated with such factors as levels of local deprivation, the nature of the housing stock and the number of transient visitors.See Safer Lancashire.

• Life expectancy is increasing in Lancashire as elsewhere in the UK but there is no guarantee that the extra years of life will necessarily equate to extra years of healthy life expectancy. In 1981 the expected time lived in poor health for males was 6.5 years; by 2001 this had risen to 8.7 years. Females can expect to live longer in poor health than males: in 1981 it was 10.1 years rising to 11.6 years in 2001. However, it is not a foregone conclusion that "extra" years of life expectancy should necessarily lead to additional years with ill health or disability. More suitable community services to enable independent living and more effective practice of preventive lifestyles and medicine has the potential to lengthen disability-free life expectancy, particularly in the case of the prevention and treatment of non-fatal but disabling diseases.

• Dependence on Manchester and Liverpool (future European capital of culture) for many higher-order social, cultural, business and financial services at the expense of urban centres within Lancashire.

• A major image problem amongst people in the south of the country regarding the many natural and built attractions of Lancashire and a lack of foreign visitors to the County.

Warton Old Rectory, an English Heritage property

• A wide range of historic properties and gardens in the county are open to the public and appeal to a growing number of visitors. e.g. Samlesbury Hall, Hoghton Tower, Helmshore Textile Mills, Towneley Hall Museum, Art Gallery and Gardens , etc. Many benefit from local ownership and control, often by the historic family owners, independent trusts, or local authorities, but there is a corresponding lack of sites operated by national organisations. This could present a false impression, especially to non-residents, of the range of historic properties in the County open to visitors. For example, the National Trust and English Heritage have high profiles, large numbers of members and effective marketing strategies, yet their perceived impact in the County is minor. In 2008, the National Trust website mentions that it has 3.5 million members, 12 million people visit its pay for entry properties, and is responsible for over 300 historic houses and gardens and 49 industrial monuments and mills. A list of sites in Lancashire on the website mentions only two properties: Gawthorpe Hall and Rufford Old Hall, both of which have recorded declining attendances over recent years. In addition, English Heritage in 2006/07 had 630,000 members, received 5.3 million visitors to staffed properties, has responsibility for over 400 sites, but their website mentions only four in Lancashire: Goodshaw Chapel, Sawley Abbey, Warton Old Rectory and the Whalley Abbey Gatehouse (two others in the county offer a discount to members). In comparison in 2008, the neighbouring county of Cumbria, and Kent, a similar sized county in area and population terms to Lancashire, had 48 and 42 attractions respectively listed on the two sites that offer free entry to members.

Bank Hall

Source www.bankhall.org.uk

• In July 2008, English Heritage Buildings at Risk Register revealed that in the broader Lancashire area there are 29 Grade I or Grade II* listed buildings on the register, of which seven were categorised as in very bad condition. These seven include Bank Hall on the outskirts of Chorley and Whalley Abbey (west range) which stands on the western side of the abbey site. Other buildings on the list include the Morecambe Winter Gardens (fair condition) and Lytham Hall (also fair condition). The 'Opportunities' section of this State of Lancashire Report mentions the challenge of trying to raise Lancashire's share of lottery funding. It would be interesting to see if in the future the cultural heritage of Lancashire can benefit more effectively from all organisations and funding sources that can help to maintain and enhance the county's cultural assets.

• Over recent years, growth in tourism-related employment in Lancashire has "under-performed" in comparison with national trends. Continued growth in air travel for business and leisure purposes may have further impact on the long-term decline in the number of overnight stays in Lancashire resorts. Poor conference venues and associated facilities, together with the air of faded glory have already resulted in the loss of the political conference trade to Blackpool and surrounding areas.

• Continued growth in air travel for business and leisure purposes may have further impact on the long-term decline in the number of overnight stays in Lancashire resorts.

Burnley Town Centre, including the Bus Station and St Peter's Health and Leisure Centre

• Lancashire is steadily becoming more prosperous, but has been doing so at a much slower rate than many other areas. At the same time disparities in wealth between different areas of the County appear to be widening. For example, the resident population for England and Wales has shown a noticeable rate of growth for a number of years and this is also reflected in many parts of Lancashire. Burnley District however is an area of the County that has recorded a long-term population decline whilst other East Lancashire authorities have seen relatively low levels of growth. Problems of empty and unfit housing, social cohesion and economic growth etc., are made more difficult to address in areas that find it difficult to attract and retain residents. In addition, for a long period of time, employment growth has been most robust in the central Lancashire area of the county.

• There are strong and weak urban/rural divisions; marked contrasts in local industrial structures; old and new small industrial and commercial centres; areas, it must be said, of poor housing and some social and economic deprivation but also areas of very considerable prosperity; areas still struggling with their industrial inheritance and areas which can look forward to the future with confidence and assurance. The creation of growing and vibrant communities across Lancashire is proving to be a challenge, and there is some evidence of increasing inequalities that may lead to strains on the social fabric of Lancashire and beyond.

• Burnley is a town still working to overcome a range of serious challenges and divisions that were brought to national attention. The Burnley Action Partnership's Community Stategy states that the neglect in some neighbourhoods, the 2001 disturbances, community tensions and expressions of polarisation have damaged the Borough's reputation. Negative media coverage and generalisations about the Borough formed externally, may inhibit inward investment and discourage families and skilled workers moving to the area. The issue of "parallel lives'" – people of different heritage living in isloation of one another remains a challenge. Much has been achieved in Burnley over recent years, but there is still much more that has to be done in this and other Lancashire towns.

• The Lancashire region was one of the cradles of the Industrial Revolution and retains a strong and diverse economic base under-pinned by a long urban and industrial tradition. The fact that it contains some areas which are the product of this earlier industrial era, and which struggle with their industrial inheritance, contributes to the fact that at best external perceptions of parts of Lancashire are neutral and at worst negative. So-called "quality of life" studies consistently place several of Lancashire's older industrial towns at the lower end of national rankings. These perceptions and the impact of negative stereotypes can be important determinants for future development.