16+ employment

Summary

For the year from July 2015 to June 2016, the UK 16+ estimated yearly employment rate of 59.9% (+/- 0.2%), sourced from the Annual Population Survey, is statistically higher than the North West 16+ employment rate of 57.8% (+/- 0.6%).

Owing to the wide and overlapping confidence intervals, the estimated 16+ employment rate for the Lancashire-12 area of 60.6% (+/- 2.1%) is not statistically higher the UK employment rate.

Owing to the wide and overlapping confidence intervals, the estimated 16+ employment rates for the East Lancashire of 58.6% (+/- 2.1%), the Lancashire-14 employment rate of 59.1% (+/- 1.4%) and the Lancashire West rate of 59.3% (+/- 1.9%) are not statistically lower the UK rate.

Figure E1: 16+ employment rate estimates with confidence intervals for the year July 2015 to June 2016

Source: Office for National Statistics, Annual Population Survey via the National On-line Manpower Information System (N.O.M.I.S.).

Estimated 16+ employment rates for the Lancashire-14 and Lancashire-12 areas have recovered over the last two years and are both at all-time peak rates (ignoring the +/- confidence intervals). The East Lancashire rate has made a notable recovery since the recent low in March 2014, but remains below the previous peak at the start of the series (ignoring the +/- confidence intervals). The Lancashire West rate has also increased rapidly over the previous year, but again is lower than previous peak estimated for the year ending June 2008 (ignoring the +/- confidence intervals).

For the year ending June 2016, 16+ employment was estimated at 697,200 persons for the Lancashire-14 area, 575,400 for the Lancashire-12 area, 451,300 persons for the Lancashire West 8-authority area and 245,900 for the East Lancashire 6-authority area. For the UK, 16+ employment was estimated at 31,326,800 persons and for the North West, 3,321,900 people. These 16+ employment numbers are the highest in the series.

Figure E2: 16+ employment rate estimates from the year ending December 2004 to the year ending June 2016

Source: Office for National Statistics, Annual Population Survey via the National On-line Manpower Information System (N.O.M.I.S.).

Yearly change in 16+ employment estimates

At the UK level, 16+ employment rose by +483,000 persons (+1.6%) over the year, increasing the 16+ employment rate by +0.4 percentage points to 59.9% (+/- 0.2%). Employment numbers rose strongly within the Lancashire-12 area (+35,500, +6.6%) over the previous year. Percentage growth was only slightly lower in the Lancashire West area (+25,900 persons, +6.1%) and rose by a similar percentage within the Lancashire-14 area (+38,200, +5.8%). East Lancashire (+12,400 persons, +5.3%) also showed robust growth since the year ending June 2015.

The yearly increases in the 16+ employment rates were greater than the UK rise of +0.4 percentage points in the Lancashire-12 area (+3.5 percentage points), the Lancashire West area (+3.3 percentage points), the Lancashire-14 area (+3.1 percentage points), and East Lancashire (+2.6 percentage points). Please note that only the increase in the Lancashire-14 rate over the year was statistically significant. 

Change in 16+ employment estimates since previous lows and peaks

Since the post-recession employment low in the UK of 28,892,400 people, for the year ending March 2010, 16+ employment has increased in the UK by +2,434,400 people (+8.4%), which has increased the employment rate by +1.9 percentage points to 59.9% (+/- 0.2%) and 31,326,800 employed persons as at the year ending June 2016. This is a peak number for this dataset, but not a peak rate – a UK 16+ employment rate of 60.0% (+/- 0.2%) was recorded on two occasions in 2008.

UK 16+ employment has increased almost consistently since the year ending March 2010 to reach the peak total for the year ending June 2016 of 31,326,800. This figure is +1,824,500 (+6.2%) greater than the previous peak of 29,502,300, estimated for the year ending September 2008, just as the 2008/09 recession was taking hold.

For the Lancashire-14 area, 16+ employment, estimated at 697,200 persons for the year ending June 2016, is above the previous peak, for the year ending March 2011, by +19,800 people (+2.9%). Similarly, the 16+ employment number, estimated at 575,400 for the Lancashire-12 area for the year ending June 2016, is greater than the previous peak for the year ending March 2011, by +16,400 persons (+2.9%). Employment numbers for the year ending June 2016 are above their respective previous peaks, estimated for the year ending March 2013 in East Lancashire, by 4,400 persons (+1.8%), and in the Lancashire West sub-region, estimated for the year ending March 2011, by 6,500 persons (+1.5%).

The percentage increases in the 16+ employment totals for the Lancashire areas since their respective previous peaks are below the UK rise of +6.2% (+1,824,500 persons) since the UK previous peak in September 2008. The 16+ employment rates for the Lancashire areas have benefited from lower growth in their 16+ employment rate denominators (the 16+ population estimates) as well as increases in employment numbers.   

As at the year ending June 2016, the 16+ employment rate of 60.6% (+/- 2.1%) for the Lancashire-12-area is +0.8 percentage points higher (ignoring the +/- confidence intervals) than the previous highest rate in the series of 59.8% (+/- 1.9%), estimated for the year ending March 2011.

For the Lancashire-14-area, the 16+ employment rate of 59.1% (+/- 1.4%) for the year ending June 2016 is +0.8 percentage points higher (ignoring the +/- confidence intervals) than the previous peak rate in the series of 58.3% (+/- 1.3%), estimated for the year ending March 2011.

The 16+ employment rate for the Lancashire West sub-region at 59.3% (+/- 1.9%) for the year ending June 2016, is -0.7 percentage points lower (ignoring the +/- confidence intervals) than the peak rate of 60.0% (+/- 1.6%) estimated for the year ending June 2008. 

The East Lancashire 16+ employment rate of 58.6% (+/- 2.1%) for the year ending June 2016 is -0.5 percentage points lower (ignoring the +/- confidence intervals) than the peak rate of 59.1% (+/- 1.3%) estimated for the year ending December 2004 at the start of this series.

Important note on the interpretation of the data

Please note that local data below the regional level is less accurate and can be volatile, owing to the smaller sample sizes and this may explain some of the variation in data. These figures should be viewed as estimates, rather than definitive data and caution applied in their interpretation. It is also advisable to revisit subsequent releases of the data to ascertain if the trends continue, or whether some of the figures may be a result of statistical anomalies.

Labour market graphs

A series of labour market graphs has been produced for each of the Lancashire sub-regions that relate to this report. The labour market graphs depict changes to 16+ population levels, economic activity, employment, economic inactivity and unemployment since the year ending December 2004, as well as the associated 16+ rates for these labour market indicators. The graphs are available to download in PDF format via the link in the further analysis box below. 

Further analysis

Annual Population Survey 16+ employment estimates, July 2015 to June 2016, full report (PDF 584 KB)

Annual Population Survey 16+ labour market graphs for Lancashire areas, December 2004 to June 2016 (PDF 2.18 MB) 

Page updated December 2016.