Climate projections
Climate projections
Predictions of weather and climate change
If you provide services that are vulnerable to extreme weather today then you need to consider how service delivery could be affected in the future by climate change. For many decisions taken by service managers and their associated risk assessments it will only be necessary to have a general understanding of future weather and climate change trends and this is provided below. For more detailed risk assessments technical expertise and detailed climate data may be required, contact the Environmental Policy team for more information.
Climate scientists are predicting the following:
- Increased mean temperature
- Reduced summer rainfall
- Increased winter precipitation
- Increased likelihood of extreme weather events
The next 10 years
It is predicted that the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, storms and high winds is likely to increase over the next few years as a result of climate change. Managers of services currently vulnerable to extreme weather who are making decisions about service delivery over a relatively short period of time should consider 'weather' rather than 'climate' which looks at changes over a thirty year period.
On this basis adaptation decisions should be made on the basis that there will be an increased likelihood of extreme weather events.
Beyond 10 years
If you are considering a project or service delivery options that extend beyond 10 years then you may need to consider how predicted changes in weather and climate might impact on this project. The following tables provide an overview of the predicted changes in winter and summer mean temperatures and in precipitation.
Climate Change in the UK and North West
Detailed climate projections for the UK and administrative regions referred to as UKCP09 or the UK climate projections can be viewed at the following website:
The UK climate projections (UKCP09) provide information on how the UK’s climate is likely to change in the 21st century, as it responds to rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. For the first time it provides probabilistic projections of climate change based on quantification of the known sources of uncertainty.
Climate change in the North West and Lancashire
Find out more about the predicted changes in temperature and precipitation in the North West from the tables below and in Lancashire visit the Lancashire Projections section.